Regional insights: Africa
We project Africa experiences the world’s fastest regional energy demand growth -driven by urbanization, rising populations, and strong GDP growth. Africa remains a significant exporter of energy
- In 2035, Africa accounts for 21% (1.8 billion) of the world’s population compared to 16% today. The region also accounts for 44% of the global increase.
- Energy demand is projected to grow by 88% between today and 2035, much faster than the global average of 37%. However, African demand accounts for just 4% of the global total.
- Renewables grow strongly in Africa, but from a very small base, as does hydro (+135%). As a result non-fossil fuels are projected to nearly double their market share from 7% today to 13% in 2035.
- Fossil fuels account for 87% of demand in 2035, with natural gas (+101%), oil (+66%) and coal (+64%) all expanding.
- Oil remains the dominant fuel accounting for 37% of energy demand, followed by gas (29%) and coal (20%).
- CO2 emissions are projected to increase by 73% compared to the global average of 25%. However, energy use per capita is just 21% of the global average.
- By sector, ongoing urbanization and electrification means energy demand in power generation grows the fastest, expanding by 115% and accounting for 46% of energy demand in 2035.
- Energy production grows by 46% and remains dominated by oil. Oil’s share, however, shrinks from 54% today to 38% in 2035 with natural gas rising to 35% from 24% today.
- The increase in combined oil and gas production in Africa between today and 2035 is bigger than in any of the BRIC countries.
- Africa currently exports a significant amount of its energy production (48%), but growing domestic demand reduces this ratio to 33% by 2035.
- Nevertheless, the region remains an important source of global oil and natural gas supply, accounting for 9% of global oil and 9% of natural gas production in 2035.
- Africa is expected to remain an important exporter of natural gas, responsible for 23% of inter-regional exports in 2035. It also accounts for 8% of inter-regional oil exports.