Outlook to 2035
The BP Energy Outlook 2035 contains our projections of long-term energy trends
Global energy demand continues to grow but that growth is slowing and will mainly be driven by emerging economies - led by China and India - according to the latest edition of the BP Energy Outlook 2035
The Outlook reveals that global energy consumption is expected to rise by 41 per cent from 2012 to 2035 - compared to 52 per cent over the last twenty years and 30 per cent over the last ten. Ninety five per cent of the growth in demand is expected to come from the emerging economies, while energy use in the advanced economies of North America, Europe and Asia as a group is expected to grow only very slowly – and begin to decline in the later years of the forecast period.
Shares of the major fossil fuels are converging, with oil, natural gas and coal each expected to make up around 27 per cent of the total mix by 2035 and the remaining share coming from nuclear, hydroelectricity and renewables. Among fossil fuels, gas is growing fastest, increasingly being used as a cleaner alternative to coal for power generation as well as in other sectors.
The Outlook shows global energy demand continuing to increase at an average of 1.5% a year to 2035. Growth is expected to moderate over this period, climbing at an average of 2% a year to 2020 but then by only 1.2% a year to 2035. 95% of this growth is expected to come from non-OECD economies, with China and India accounting for more than half of the increase. By 2035, energy use in the non-OECD economies is expected to be 69% higher than in 2012. In comparsion use in the OECD will have grown by only 5%, and will actually have fallen after 2030, even with continued economic growth.
While the fuel mix is evolving, fossil fuels will continue to be dominant. Oil, gas and coal are expected to converge on market shares of around 26-27% each by 2035, and non-fossil fuels – nuclear, hydro and renewables – on a share of around 5-7% each.
Oil is expected to be the slowest growing of the major fuels to 2035, with demand growing at an average of just 0.8% a year. Nonetheless, this will still result in demand for oil and other liquid fuels being nearly 19 million barrels a day higher in 2035 than 2012. All the net demand growth is expected to come from outside the OECD – demand growth from China, India and the Middle East will together account for almost all of net demand growth.
Natural gas is expected to be the fastest growing of the fossil fuels – with demand rising at an average of 1.9% a year. Non-OECD countries are expected to generate 78% of demand growth. Industry and power generation account for the largest increments to demand by sector. LNG exports are expected to grow more than twice as fast as gas consumption, at an average of 3.9% per year, and accounting for 26% of the growth in global gas supply to 2035.
After oil, coal is expected to be the slowest growing major fuel, with demand rising on average 1.1% a year to 2035. Over the period, growth flattens to just 0.6% a year after 2020. Nearly all (87%) of the net growth in demand to 2035 is expected to come from just China and India, whose combined share of global coal consumption will rise from 58% in 2012 to 64% in 2035.
Nuclear energy output is expected to rise to 2035 at around 1.9% a year. China, India and Russia will together account for 96% of the global growth in nuclear power, while nuclear output in the US and EU declines due to expected plant closures. The growth in hydroelectric power is expected to moderate to 1.8% a year to 2035, with nearly half of the growth coming from China, India and Brazil. Renewables are expected to continue to be the fastest growing class of energy, gaining market share from a small base as they rise at an average of 6.4% a year to 2035. Renewables' share of global electricity production is expected to grow from 5% to 14% by 2035. Including biofuels, renewables are expected to have a higher share of primary energy than nuclear by 2025.
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.