BP Energy Outlook

The BP Energy Outlook outlines the “most likely” path for the global energy landscape - supply and demand - over the next 20 years

Outlook to 2035 - the base case

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"We expect the mix of fuels to change quite significantly over the next 20 years, gas to grow quickly, also strong growth in renewables like solar and wind."

In this video Spencer Dale, group chief economist, discusses the key themes of the BP Energy Outlook

The Energy Outlook considers a base case, which outlines the “most likely” path for energy demand based on assumptions about future changes in policy, technology and the economy. 

In the base case, world GDP more than doubles, but unprecedented gains in energy efficiency, mean that the energy required to fuel the higher level of activity grows by only around a third over the Outlook.

Fossil fuels remain the dominant form of energy powering the global expansion: providing around 60% of the additional energy and accounting for almost 80% of total energy supplies in 2035. Renewables grow rapidly, almost quadrupling by 2035 and supplying a third of the growth in power generation.
In February, Spencer Dale, group chief economist, hosted a webcast to launch the BP Energy Outlook 2016 edition. It is available to watch on-demand.

Exploring three key themes

Beyond the base case, the BP Energy Outlook examines some of the key issues that will shape energy supply and demand through to 2035, and explores possible alternative outcomes:

Key downloads*

BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition

Bob Dudley, group chief executive, and Spencer Dale, group chief economist, will host a live webcast on Wednesday 25 January to mark the publication of the BP Energy Outlook - 2017 edition

Focus on North America

The ‘Energy Outlook: focus on North America’ takes a look at the most likely path for North American energy to 2035 and explores some of the key issues that will shape supply and demand

Country and regional insights

Building on the Energy Outlook, our 'insights' factsheets provide projections at a country and regional level.
The Middle East will account for a third of the world's oil supply by 2035
By 2035 renewables are the largest source of power generation in the EU with a share of 36%
We project that by 2035 Asia Pacific's share of global demand rises to 47%. 
* The original version of the Energy Outlook published on 10 February contained a small error in the historical data series for GDP and population. This has now been corrected. None of the Outlook projections are affected by this revision.

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