Regional insights: European Union

We project that by 2035 renewables account for 40% of EU’s power generation

Growth in EU energy consumption

Share of global energy consumption in 2035

Growth in EU energy production

  • Primary energy demand declines by 0.4% p.a. over the Outlook, as growth in renewables (including biofuels) (+100%), natural gas (+15%), and hydro (+9%), are outweighed by declines in coal (-55%), oil (-24%) and nuclear (-29%).
  • The fuel mix continues to evolve as renewables gain market share. The share of oil in the fuel mix drops to 30% in 2035, from 36% today, however oil remains the dominant fuel.
  • Natural gas consumption grows by 0.7% p.a., nearly twice as fast as its historical growth trend of 0.4% p.a..
  • Power is the only growth sector over the Outlook. The building sector experiences the slowest decline of 0.3% p.a. from 2015 to 2035.
  • Energy consumed in power generation increases by 0.1% p.a. from 2015 to 2035. Renewables are expected to replace coal as the dominant fuel source in power around 2019, followed by nuclear and natural gas.
  • Apart from renewables and hydro, all other sources of production decline over the Outlook, with coal down by 61%, natural gas by 52%, oil by 41%, and nuclear by 29%.
  • Within renewables, the fastest-growing source is wind (+141%), accounting for 56% of renewables (including biofuels) supply by 2035 up from 47% today.
  • By 2035 EU wind generation (169 Mtoe) is greater than production of liquids, coal, and natural gas combined (158 Mtoe).
  • Russia remains the largest source for the EU’s natural gas imports as Russia expands its market share from 33% of EU natural gas consumption today to 40% by 2035.
  • EU’s energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 32% over the next 20 years, falling to its lowest level on record by 2035.
  • The EU is the only region where both demand and supply of primary energy is expected to decline over the Outlook.

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