Regional insights: Middle East

The Middle East maintains its role as the world’s top oil exporter, but loses share within natural gas exports as its gas consumption grows rapidly

Growth in Middle East energy consumption

Share of global energy consumption in 2035

Natural gas share in energy mix in 2035

  • In 2035, the Middle East makes up only 4% of global population, but contributes almost 8% to global energy consumption due to its high per capita energy consumption.
  • Middle East energy consumption rises almost 50% by 2035, with natural gas accounting for more than half of the growth.
  • Energy intensity is projected to fall (17% by 2035) having risen steadily since the mid-1970s. Nevertheless, the region still surpasses the FSU in the 2030s to become the most energy intensive region in the world.
  • By 2035, fossil fuels still make up 95% of demand in 2035, with the share of natural gas rising from 50 to 52%. Oil’s share falls from 48% to 42%.
  • The shares of both nuclear and renewables in primary energy rise from close to zero today to 2%. Renewables growth is driven mainly by new solar capacity.
  • By sector, industry remains the largest part of final energy consumption with a 42% market share in 2035.
  • Energy used in power generation grows by 54%, with growth dominated by gas. Electricity supply rises by 94% due to improving power plant efficiency.
  • Oil consumption rises by 34% or 3 Mb/d. Non-combusted fuel use (largely for new petrochemicals plants) provides more than half of the net growth (1.7 Mb/d).
  • Oil production is expected to rise by 29% or 9 Mb/d by 2035, with growth in Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran.
  • The Middle East remains the world’s largest oil producing region; its share of global supply rises from 32% to 37% by 2035.
  • The region also remains the world’s largest oil exporter with volumes rising from 21 Mb/d in 2015 to nearly 27 Mb/d in 2035. It continues to make up more than half of all inter-regional exports.
  • In contrast, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports remain flat over the Outlook (at 12 Bcf/d) such that the Middle East share of LNG exports falls sharply from 37% today to 16% by 2035.
     

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