We project that the US becomes energy self-sufficient in 2023 and maintains its position as the world’s largest liquids and natural gas producer
Growth in US energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2035
Growth in US energy production
- Increasing consumption of natural gas (+25%), renewables (including biofuels) (+182%), and hydro (+15%), outweigh declines in coal (-50%), oil (-17%) and nuclear (-2%).
- Natural gas replaces oil as the leading fuel in US energy consumption around 2023 – increasing its share from 31% today to 39% in 2035. Oil’s share of the fuel mix falls to 29% by 2035, the lowest level on record.
- The share of fossil fuels consumption falls to 77% by 2035, down from 85% today. Coal’s share in the fuel mix drops to just 9% in 2035, compared to 17% in 2015, the lowest level on record.
- Renewables consumption (including biofuels) grows by 5% p.a. from 2015 to 2035, a slowdown in growth compared to the previous 20 year period of 9% p.a. from 1995-2015. Their share in the fuel mix grows from just 5% in 2015 to 13% in 2035.
- Energy consumed in power generation increases by 4% and by 2020 gas overtakes coal as the dominant fuel.
- Rising US production of gas (+55%) and oil (+20%) offset declines in coal (-39%).
- The US remains the world’s largest producer of natural gas, accounting for 25% of global output in 2035. The US produces 70% of the world’s shale gas by 2035.
- The US became the world’s largest liquids producer (including biofuels) starting in 2013 and remains so through 2035.
- US tight oil output grows by 3 Mb/d to around 7 Mb/d. Shale gas production grows by 107% to 83 Bcf/d accounting for 72% of total US gas production.
- Slower demand growth (0.1% p.a.) and strong production growth (1.1% p.a.) allows the US to become energy self-sufficient in 2023.
- Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 31% by 2035. Per capita energy use reaches its lowest level since at least 1965.