Trading conditions update
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Trading conditions update - data to Thursday 12 November 2009
This trading conditions update is produced in order to provide disclosure to investors and potential investors of current trading conditions, and to ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information at the same time.
The marker prices and indicator margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realised by BP during the given periods. This data is normally updated every Monday at 15:30 UK time.
Quarter to date data are updated to the date shown at the top of this page, with the exception of the Russian domestic marker which is updated one month in arrears.
Quarter to date data are updated to the date shown at the top of this page, with the exception of the Russian domestic marker which is updated one month in arrears.
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| Marker Prices | 4Q'08 | 1Q'09 |
2Q'09 |
3Q'09 |
4Q'09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Dated ($/bbl) | 55.48 | 44.46 | 59.13 | 68.08 | 73.87 |
| WTI Cushing ($/bbl) | 59.13 | 43.20 | 59.71 | 68.12 | 76.63 |
| ANS USWC ($/bbl) | 56.70 | 45.40 | 59.10 | 69.07 | 75.73 |
| Mars ($/bbl) | 53.84 | 43.83 | 57.51 | 66.35 | 73.26 |
| US gas Henry Hub first of month index ($/mmbtu) | 6.95 | 4.91 | 3.51 | 3.39 | 4.00 |
| UK gas price - National Balance Point (p/therm) | 57.16 | 46.80 | 27.51 | 21.57 | 25.74 |
| Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl) | 54.58 | 43.65 | 58.46 | 67.76 | 73.74 |
| Russian domestic oil ($/bbl)* | 19.82 | 19.52 | 32.63 | 35.55 | 36.89 |
| Source: Platts, * except Russian domestic oil which is sourced from Argus | |||||
| Light / heavy crude spreads | 4Q'08 | 1Q'09 |
2Q'09 |
3Q'09 |
4Q'09 to date |
| Brent vs. Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl) | 0.89 |
0.81 |
0.67 |
0.32 | 0.13 |
| WTI vs. Mars ($/bbl) | 5.29 |
-0.63 |
2.20 |
1.78 | 3.37 |
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| Refining Margins $/bbl | 4Q'08 | 1Q'09 |
2Q'09 |
3Q'09 |
4Q'09 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | |||||
| - West Coast | 6.80 | 9.96 | 7.14 | 4.89 | -0.07 |
| - Gulf Coast | 2.49 | 6.69 | 6.00 | 4.16 | 1.26 |
| - Mid West | 2.53 | 7.03 | 8.54 | 5.04 | 1.42 |
| North West Europe | 7.48 | 4.67 | 3.10 | 2.60 | 3.34 |
| Mediterranean |
5.04 | 3.56 | 2.55 | 1.59 | 1.24 |
| Singapore | 5.16 | 2.51 | -0.11 | -0.02 | -1.75 |
| Refining Global Indicator Margin* | 5.19 | 6.20 | 4.98 | 3.42 | 1.25 |
* The Refining Global Indicator Margin (GIM) is a generic indicator. Actual margins realised by BP may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, including specific refinery configurations, crude slate and operating practices.
Rules of Thumb
Important note: The rules of thumb shown below were provided at the time of the strategy presentation on 3rd March 2009 and are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on BP's 2009 full year pre-tax results. These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon BP's portfolio as at 1st January 2009. Due to the recent volatility in hydrocarbon prices and differentials between prices, these rules of thumb have a wider range of uncertainty than in 2008 in quantifying the impact of prices changes. Especially over short periods, changes in prices, margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues and other factors can be material. Significant differences may arise due to increasingly complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of Exploration and Production revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels, as well as from variations between the refining Global Indicator Margin (GIM) and BP's realized refining margins due to crude price levels and differentials, product price movements and other factors. The GIM rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity to the overall group to changes in refining margins. Many other factors will affect BP's earnings quarter by quarter. Actual results in individual quarters may therefore differ significantly from the estimates implied by the application of these rules of thumb.| 2009 Operating Environment Rules of Thumb: impact on replacement cost pre-tax operating profit | |
| Full Year | |
|---|---|
| Oil Price - Brent +/- $1/bbl | $430m |
| Gas - Henry Hub +/- $ 0.10/mcf | $90m |
| Refining - GIM +/- $ 1/bbl | $950m |
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