Energy Outlook 2030

The BP Energy Outlook 2030 - January 2013, contains our projections of long-term energy trends

We hope that sharing this outlook contributes to the wider debate on global energy issues. It identifies long-term energy trends, building on our Statistical Review of World Energy, and then develops projections for world energy markets to 2030, taking account of the potential evolution of the world economy, policy, and technology.

The outlook reflects a ‘to the best of our knowledge’ assessment of the world’s likely path from today’s vantage point, drawing on expertise both within and outside the company. It is not a statement about how we would like the market to evolve.

The outlook highlights the growing role of developing economies in global energy consumption, and the increasing share of non-fossil fuels in global energy supply. It emphasizes the importance of both improving energy efficiency and expanding energy supplies to meet the energy needs of billions of people who aspire to better lifestyles, and doing so in a way that is sustainable and secure. This year’s edition has a special focus on the role of shale gas and tight oil in supporting the growth of gas and oil supply. It also notes the uncertainties attached to any long term projection. The discipline of building a numerical projection sharpens our thinking, but the precise numbers are less important than the underlying story of the challenges we all face and the choices we make in producing and consuming energy.

Energy Outlook 2030 booklet (pdf, 1463KB)

Energy Outlook 2030 summary (xlsx, 48KB)

BP Energy Outlook 2030 infographic animation
January 2013

Background papers - BP Energy Outlook 2030 - January 2012

Economic Development and the Demand for Energy: A Historical Perspective on the Next 20 Years - January 2012 (pdf, 220KB)

Revised version published as: C. Rühl, P. Appleby, J. Fennema, A. Naumov, M. Schaffer, Economic development and the demand for energy: A historical perspective on the next 20 years, Energy Policy, Volume 50, November 2012, Pages 109-116, ISSN 0301-4215.

The Oil Market to 2030: Implications for Investment and Policy – December 2011 (pdf, 269KB)

Cautionary statement

This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding global economic growth, population growth, energy consumption, policy support for renewable energies and sources of energy supply. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation.