The purpose of this page is to collate existing available public information that may assist with the financial modelling of bp. Please also refer to our legal notice.
Trading conditions update
The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.
Content includes the following:
Current and historic market prices
Current and historic marker margins
Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RIM
Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2026 | Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit |
|---|---|
Oil price* | $340m |
Natural gas price* | $40m |
Refining indicator margin | $450m |
*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy.
4Q 2026 guidance
Looking ahead, bp expects fourth quarter 2026 reported upstream production to be 2,090 to 2,230mboe/d. This includes the impact of continued disruption in the Middle East, activity phasing in bpx energy, seasonally lower gas demand and around 20mboe/d for a weather event in the Gulf of America, partly offset by the recovery from outages. The heightened volatility in the oil and gas prices could also impact PSA contracts.
In its customers business, compared to the third quarter, bp expects a significantly lower result with seasonally lower volumes, a lower midstream result and lower Castrol earnings, subject to the anticipated completion of the divestment. Fuels margins and midstream performance are expected to remain sensitive to market conditions.
In products, bp expects throughput of 1,160-1,210mb/d, reflecting the absence of Gelsenkirchen for the full quarter following its divestment on 31 July and higher maintenance activity. Refining margins are expected to remain elevated and sensitive to the cost of supply and market conditions.
bp expects income taxes paid in the fourth quarter to be around $0.8 billion higher than the third quarter 2026 mainly due to the impact of higher profits on instalment payments.
2026 guidance
bp now expects reported upstream production to be 2,210 to 2,250mboe/d, compared with the 2025, 2,312mboe/d. This includes the impact of disruption in the Middle East, the divestment of the Culzean gas field in the UK North Sea and bp's reduced equity interest in Latin America.
In its customers business, bp expects to make continued progress growing cash flows, supported by lower underlying operating expenditure driven by structural cost reductions. These benefits will be partly offset by the earnings impact of completed and announced divestments. Reported earnings will benefit from lower depreciation as a result of the assets held for sale accounting treatment of Castrol following the planned divestment. Fuel margins are expected to remain sensitive to conditions and developments in the Middle East and any resulting policy responses.
In products, bp expects throughput of 1,390 to 1,400mb/d, reflecting the completion of the Gelsenkirchen divestment and a significantly lower level of planned turnaround activity. Refining margins are expected to remain sensitive to the cost of supply and market conditions.
bp continues to expect other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2026. The charge may vary quarter to quarter.
bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be $17.0-17.5 billion.
bp now expects the underlying ETR for 2026 to be between 31% and 34%, which reflects the underlying ETR for the nine months of 31%. It is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
bp continues to expect capital expenditure to be $13.5-14.0 billion.
bp now expects divestment and other proceeds to be around $8 billion in 2026, including approximately $6 billion from the announced Castrol divestment.
bp continues to expect Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.6 billion pre-tax including $0.4 billion pre-tax paid during the first quarter and $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter. The timing of the payment of the recently announced $350 million settlement with the US state of Louisiana is still to be determined.
Updated refining rule of thumb
bp has updated the bp refining indicator margin (RIM) and associated refining rule of thumb (RoT) to reflect the sale of 100% of the Gelsenkirchen refinery (GSK). The bp RIM RoT reflects the sensitivity of the group’s forward looking underlying replacement cost profit before tax to changes in bp’s RIM at normal operating conditions and will not fully explain all quarter-on-quarter movements in Products earnings.
The bp RIM reflects a broad set of crudes and products and is representative of bp’s refining portfolio and realized refining margin per barrel.
Refining RoT for +/- $1/bbl change | Impact on underlying RC profit before interest and tax |
bp RIM (post GSK divestment - new) | $450m |
bp RIM (prior to GSK divestment - retired) | $550m |
As a consequence of this change, the refining price assumptions applicable to bp's CMU Cash Flow and ROACE Targets have been updated. The updated price assumptions are: at $70/bbl Brent, $4/mmBtu Henry Hub and $10.8/bbl refining indicator margin, all 2024 real. There is no change to the CMU Cash flow and ROACE targets or to the prices used for impairment testing as a consequence of this update. Price assumptions are not intended to reflect management’s forecasts for future prices.
Medium-term guidance as provided in our capital markets update 2025
Full detail around our medium targets and guidance can be found in our capital markets update materials.
Four primary medium-term targets that underpin value growth
Adjusted free cash flow growth: >20% CAGR from 2024 – 2027
Structural cost reduction: $4 – 5bn by end 2027
Net debt: expected to be reduced to $14 – 18bn by end 2027
(Potential proceeds from any transactions related to Castrol strategic review and announcement to bring a strategic partner into LSbp will be allocated to reduce net debt)
Group ROACE: >16% in 2027
Supporting metrics
Upstream:
Upstream production growth: 2.3 - 2.5mboed in 2030, with capacity to increase to 2035
10 new major projects to start by end 2027 and further 8 to 10 by end 2030:
Upstream capex: ~$10.5bn p.a to 2027 (including biogas)
~$10bn oil & gas only (70% oil / 30% gas)
Structural cost reductions: ~$1.5bn by end 2027
Operating cash flow growth: $2bn 2024 to 2027 (including biogas)
Plant reliability: ~96%
Reserves replacement ratio: 100% by end 2027
Downstream:
Customers & products capex: ~$3bn by 2027
Structural cost reductions: ~$2bn by end 2027
~$1.5bn in customers
>$500m in refining
Operating cash flow growth: $3.5 to 4bn by 2027 (50% customers, 50% products)
Realised cash breakeven: ~$3/bbl lower
Returns: >15% expected
Refining availability: 96%
Low carbon energy (renewables, H2/CCS):
Capex: <$800m p.a to 2027
Structural cost reductions: ~$0.5bn by end 2027
Returns: mid-teen expected
Transition: includes LCE + biogas, biofuels and EV charging
Note: biogas is reported in G&LCE from 1Q 2025, biofuels and EV charging will continue to be reported in our customers business
Capex: $1.5 to 2bn p.a. to 2027
Expected returns: >15%
Price assumptions
The price assumptions applicable to bp’s CMU Cash Flow and ROACE Targets have been updated by replacing the RMM price assumption with a RIM price assumption. The updated price assumptions are: at $70/bbl Brent, $4/mmBtu Henry Hub and $10.3/bbl refining indicator margin, all 2024 real. There is no change to the CMU Cash flow and ROACE targets or to the prices used for impairment testing as a consequence of this update. Price assumptions are not intended to reflect management’s forecasts for future prices.
Marker prices | 2024 actual | 20241 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Brent ($/bbl) | 80.8 | 70 | 71.5 | 72.9 | 74.4 |
Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) | 2.3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 4.3 |
Refining Indicator Margin – updated2 ($/bbl) | 11.2 | 10.8 | 11.0 | 11.2 | 11.5 |
Refining Indicator Margin – prior ($/bbl) | 10.7 | 10.3 | 10.5 | 10.7 | 10.9 |
1) Reference year 2024, assumes inflation ~2%.
2) RIM and associated refining RoT have been updated to reflect the sale of bp's Gelsenkirchen refinery on the 31st July 2026, CMU refining price assumptions have been revised, with no impact on plan or targets.
Mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
Below is a summary of selected M&A transactions since 2022 that may impact financial modelling of bp's businesses.
bp agrees to sell a 65% shareholding in Castrol to Stonepeak at an enterprise value of $10 billion
bp agrees to sell Netherlands mobility & convenience and bp pulse businesses to Catom
BP Europa SE to seek potential buyers for Ruhr Oel GmbH – BP Gelsenkirchen
bp plans to sell its mobility & convenience business in Austria
