However, not all crudes are made in the same way. Different crudes have different carbon intensities, which means there’s variation in operational emissions across countries and basins, depending on what is being produced and how.
Compared with the hypothetical case in which all supplies are assumed to have the same carbon intensity, those differences could have a significant impact on cost and competitiveness, depending on carbon prices.
In a Business as Usual scenario, where carbon prices remain relatively low over the Energy Outlook’s entire timeframe, the change in supply patterns between different crudes is minimal by 2050 – just 0.5 Mb/d.
But the story changes in the Outlook’s Rapid scenario, in which carbon prices start to rise significantly. Under these circumstances, the supply of crudes with the highest carbon intensity falls by almost 25%.
A similar set of issues applies to gas. The carbon intensity of producing gas varies from region to region but, in addition, it is also affected by the way in which it is transported. For example, liquefied natural gas has a higher carbon intensity than gas transported via pipeline.
Average carbon intensity of crude production by country
Explore the report, download the data or watch the replay of Spencer Dale's 2020 presentation