We project that by 2020 North America becomes energy self-sufficient and maintains its position as the world’s largest natural gas producing region
Growth in North American energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2035
Growth in North American energy production
- Increasing consumption of natural gas (+28%), renewables (including biofuels) (+195%), and hydro (+16%), outweigh declines in coal (-51%), oil (-16%) and nuclear (-1%).
- Natural gas replaces oil as the leading fuel in North American energy consumption around 2021 – increasing its share from 32% today to 39% in 2035. Gas consumption grows by 1.2% p.a. from 2015 to 2035.
- Oil consumption declines by 4 Mb/d over the Outlook to 19 Mb/d, the lowest level since 1985. Oil’s market share declines from 36% today to 29% in 2035.
- Fossil fuels account for 75% of North American energy consumption in 2035, declining from 83% by 2015. The share of coal in the fuel mix drops from 15% in 2015 to just 7% in 2035.
- Renewables consumption (including biofuels) grows by 5.6% p.a. from 2015 to 2035 and their share in the fuel mix grows from 4% today to 12% by 2035.
- Rising production of gas (+48%) and oil (+18%) offset declines in coal (-38%).
- North American energy production grows by 1.0% p.a. from 2015 to 2035, similar to the global average of 1.3%.
- Liquids production increases by 4 Mb/d to 26 Mb/d in 2035 and accounts for 23% of global liquids production up from 22% in 2035.
- Natural gas production increases by 2.0% p.a. over the forecast to reach 141 Bcf/d by 2035. North America accounts for 74% of global shale gas production by 2035.
- Slow demand growth (+4% by 2035) and more robust production growth (+21% by 2035) allows North America to become energy self-sufficient by 2020.
- Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 1.8% p.a. from 2015 to 2035.