The Outlook considers a number of different scenarios. These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen or what BP would like to happen. Rather, they explore the possible implications of different judgements and assumptions by considering a series of “what if” experiments. The scenarios consider only a tiny sub-set of the uncertainty surrounding energy markets out to 2040; they do not provide a comprehensive description of all possible future outcomes.
For ease of explanation, much of the Outlook is described with reference to the ‘Evolving transition’ scenario. But that does not imply that the probability of this scenario is higher than the others. Indeed, the multitude of uncertainties means the probability of any one of these scenarios materializing exactly as described is negligible.
The Energy Outlook is produced to aid BP’s analysis and decision-making, and is published as a contribution to the wider debate. But the Outlook is only one source among many when considering the future of global energy markets. BP considers the scenarios in the Outlook, together with a range of other analysis and information, when forming its long-term strategy.
IEA: New Policies Scenario, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018 , Paris, France, Nov. 2018
IEEJ: Institute of Energy Economics Japan, Outlook 2019-Energy transition and a thorny path for 3E challenges, Tokyo, Japan, Oct. 2018
IHS: IHS Markit, Rivalry: the IHS Markit view of the energy future (2018-2050), Jul. 2018
OPEC: Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, World Oil Outlook 2040, Sep. 2018
Equinor: Energy Perspectives 2018 – Long-term macro and market outlook, May 2018
ExxonMobil: 2018 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040, Feb. 2018
CNPC: CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, Energy Outlook 2050, 2018
EIA: US Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2017, Washington, D.C., United States, Sep. 2017
Shell: Sky Scenario, Feb. 2018
IEA: Sustainable Development Scenario, International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2018, Paris, France, Nov. 2018
IPCC: P1 Illustrative Model Pathway, Global Warming of 1.5 C, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Oct. 2018
Equinor: Renewal Scenario, Energy Perspectives 2018, May 2018
BP p.l.c., BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom, Jun. 2018
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2018
International Energy Agency, Energy Balances of OECD Countries, Paris, France, 2018
UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision, New York, United States, 2017
This presentation contains forward-looking statements, particularly those regarding the global energy transition, changes to the fuel mix, global economic growth, population, productivity and prosperity growth, energy markets, energy demand, consumption, production and supply, energy efficiency, mobility developments, policy support for renewable energies and other lower-carbon alternatives, sources of energy supply, technological developments, trade disputes and growth of carbon emissions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties because they relate to events, and depend on circumstances, that will or may occur in the future. Actual outcomes may differ depending on a variety of factors, including product supply, demand and pricing; political stability; general economic conditions; demographic changes; legal and regulatory developments; availability of new technologies; natural disasters and adverse weather conditions; wars and acts of terrorism or sabotage; and other factors discussed elsewhere in this presentation. BP disclaims any obligation to update this presentation. Neither BP p.l.c. nor any of its subsidiaries (nor their respective officers, employees and agents) accept liability for any inaccuracies or omissions or for any direct, indirect, special, consequential or other losses or damages of whatsoever kind in connection to this publication or any information contained in it.
Data compilation: Centre for Energy Economics Research and Policy, Heriot-Watt University