The shifting pattern of global oil supplies over the outlook is driven by contrasting trends in US tight oil and OPEC production. US tight oil recovers over the first part of the outlook, after which it begins to fall and OPEC’s market share gradually increases.
The variation in carbon intensity of different types of oil production has an increasing bearing on their relative competitiveness as policies on carbon emissions tighten over the outlook. This helps to incentivize a shift towards oil supplies with lower levels of operational carbon intensity as well as encouraging all producers to reduce levels of carbon intensity in their production processes.