The key trends affecting our businesses include: growing global concern over climate change, the impact of rapidly advancing digital technology, increasing prosperity in the emerging world driving economic growth, changing societal expectations of corporations, and the shifting geopolitical structure.
One of the key drivers of these trends is climate change and the widening concern about the energy transition. The global energy system needs to deliver more energy with less carbon.
Demand for energy is set to grow significantly, driven by increases in prosperity in the developing world. Most of the growth in demand comes from developing economies, to support their industry and infrastructure and sustain improvements in living standards.
Carbon emissions need to fall sharply as the world seeks to move to a lower carbon energy system consistent with meeting the climate goals outlined in the Paris Agreement.*
Our Outlook explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding it. The 2019 Outlook considers a range of scenarios. They have some common features, such as ongoing economic growth and a shift towards a lower carbon fuel mix, but differ in terms of policy, technology and behavioural assumptions.
To meet the Paris goals we believe the world must take strong action on a range of fronts
Improving energy efficiency, to decouple energy demand from growing economic activity and prosperity.
Rapid growth in renewable energy and other low or zero carbon energy sources.
Increasing the share of electricity in final energy use and decarbonizing power generation.
Switching to lower or zero carbon liquid and gaseous fuels, particularly in areas such as heavy transport.
Deploying carbon-removal technologies, such as CCUS at scale.
Promoting natural climate solutions including the management and restoration of habitats, and the role of carbon credits.
Increased demand for energy will be met overthe coming decades through a diverse range of supplies, including oil, gas, coal and renewables.
The energy mix is shifting as the transition to a lower carbon energy system continues, with renewable energy and natural gas gaining in importance relative to oil and coal.
Evolving transition: renewables and natural gas account for almost 85% of the growth in primary energy by 2040, with their importance increasing relative to all other sources of energy.
Rapid transition: renewable energy grows rapidly, accounting for more than the entire increase in primary energy by 2040 – and a sharp contraction in the use of coal. The level of oil consumption falls, but gas continues to growaided by increasing use of CCUS.
* Renewables includes wind, solar, geothermal, biomass and biofuels
Source: BP Energy Outlook 2019
Primary energy consumption by fuel