February 21, 2018
The 2018 edition of BP’s Energy Outlook considers the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2040 and the key uncertainties surrounding that transition. In the Outlook’s Evolving Transition scenario, fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand about a third higher. Meanwhile, the global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around a quarter of total consumption.
As for the U.S. energy outlook in particular, BP’s Evolving Transition scenario projects that:
- The U.S. becomes energy self-sufficient in the early 2020s.
- The U.S. maintains its position as the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas to 2040.
The share of renewables in the U.S. fuel mix grows from 5 percent today to 17 percent in 2040.
- Natural gas becomes America’s leading fuel, accounting for 40 percent of U.S. energy consumption in 2040, compared with 32 percent today.
- Oil’s share of U.S. energy consumption falls from 36% today to 30% in 2040, while coal’s share plunges from 16% to 5%.
- U.S. energy consumption is essentially flat, growing by just 1%.
- The energy intensity of America’s economy — the amount of energy required per unit of GDP — declines by 35%.
- Flat energy consumption combined with a shift in the fuel mix (more renewables and gas; less coal and oil) contributes to a 21% decline in America’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy use.
More information can be found at www.bp.com/energyoutlook.