Russia remains one of the leading fossil fuels producers with a share of 14% of combined global oil and gas output.
Russian oil production grows by 1.2 Mb/d (+10%) to 12.5 Mb/d by 2040.
Russian gas production grows by 216 Bcm (+34%) to 851 Bcm by 2040.
Russia’s primary energy production grows by 21% between 2017 and 2040, but its share of global production drops from 10% in 2017 to 9% in 2040.
Russia remains the world’s largest primary energy exporter and the second-largest combined oil and gas producer, exporting 9 Mb/d of oil and 387 Bcm of gas on a net basis by 2040.
Russia’s liquids production (12.5 Mb/d in 2040) trails only the US and Saudi Arabia by 2040.
Natural gas production (851 Bcm in 2040) remains second after the US.
Energy consumption (+7%) in Russia is the slowest growing among BRIC countries, with India (+156%), Brazil (+65%) and China (+28%), all expanding much faster. Russia’s share of global primary energy consumption declines slightly: from 5% in 2017 to 4% in 2040.
By sector, non-combusted use of energy (+77%) accounts for almost all of Russia’s energy consumption increase.
Despite growing by over 1000% by 2040, renewables contribute just 2% to Russia’s primary energy demand in 2040, compared with 17% on average among the other BRIC nations.
Nuclear (+35% by 2040) is the second fastest growing fuel followed by hydro (+12%), gas and oil (both +9%); coal consumption declines (-36%).
Gas still dominates Russia’s fuel mix in 2040, accounting for 53% of total energy use (up from 52% in 2017). Oil’s share stays stable at 22% while coal’s share declines from 13% to 8%.
Natural gas remains the leading fuel in power generation; its share remains unchanged at 53%. Nuclear grows from 16% to 19%, and hydro remains flat at 14%. Coal declines from 15% to 8%.
Russia’s energy intensity declines by 20%, slower than China (-54%), India (-32%), or the non-OECD average (-39%).
Despite lower emissions (-9%) in 2040, Russia becomes the most carbon-intensive economy among the 14 countries/regions in our Outlook.