Country insight – Russia

Projections

• Russia's economy grows at a rate of 1.1% per annum in 2018-2050, higher than 0.7% over 1990-2018.

• Due to modest efficiency gains, Russia’s primary energy consumption is flat in BAU (-1.4% over 2018-2050) and declines slightly in Rapid (-7%) and Net Zero (-11%).

• Gas remains the leading energy source in Russia, with its share growing to 57% of the primary energy mix in BAU, holding steady at 48% in Rapid and falling to 23% in Net Zero.
  
• At the same time, renewables’ output grows significantly in all scenarios, driven mainly by wind. Renewables share of primary energy increases to 4% in BAU, 20% in Rapid and 48% in Net Zero, in which it becomes the largest source of energy.

• Coal demand falls across all scenarios – to zero under Rapid and Net Zero by 2050.

• Demand for oil in Russia remains almost flat in BAU (+6% over 2018-2050) and declines by 40% and 60% in Rapid and Net Zero respectively.
  
• Production of gas grows across all three scenarios in Russia, reaching 671 bcm under Rapid and 917 bcm, under BAU by 2050.

• Nuclear output grows across all three scenarios: by 17% under BAU, 32% under Rapid and 94% under Net Zero by 2050. Nuclear reaches 9% of the primary energy mix under Rapid and 13% under Net Zero.

• These effects combine to reduce net CO₂ emissions by 92% in the Net Zero scenario, 69% under Rapid and 24% under BAU.