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Country insight – Russia

We project Russia to remain the world’s largest energy exporter, with Russia’s exports meeting over 5% of global energy demand by 2040

Highlights

7% increase

Growth in Russia’s energy consumption

4%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

21% increase

Growth in Russia’s energy production


Russia remains one of the leading fossil fuels producers with a share of 14% of combined global oil and gas output.
 
Russian oil production grows by 1.2 Mb/d (+10%) to 12.5 Mb/d by 2040.
 
Russian gas production grows by 216 Bcm (+34%) to 851 Bcm by 2040.

 

Projections

  • Russia’s primary energy production grows by 21% between 2017 and 2040, but its share of global production drops from 10% in 2017 to 9% in 2040.
  • Russia remains the world’s largest primary energy exporter and the second-largest combined oil and gas producer, exporting 9 Mb/d of oil and 387 Bcm of gas on a net basis by 2040.
  • Russia’s liquids production (12.5 Mb/d in 2040) trails only the US and Saudi Arabia by 2040.
  • Natural gas production (851 Bcm in 2040) remains second after the US.
  • Energy consumption (+7%) in Russia is the slowest growing among BRIC countries, with India (+156%), Brazil (+65%) and China (+28%), all expanding much faster. Russia’s share of global primary energy consumption declines slightly: from 5% in 2017 to 4% in 2040.
  • By sector, non-combusted use of energy (+77%) accounts for almost all of Russia’s energy consumption increase.  
  • Despite growing by over 1000% by 2040, renewables contribute just 2% to Russia’s primary energy demand in 2040, compared with 17% on average among the other BRIC nations.
  • Nuclear (+35% by 2040) is the second fastest growing fuel followed by hydro (+12%), gas and oil (both +9%); coal consumption declines (-36%).
  • Gas still dominates Russia’s fuel mix in 2040, accounting for 53% of total energy use (up from 52% in 2017). Oil’s share stays stable at 22% while coal’s share declines from 13% to 8%.
  • Natural gas remains the leading fuel in power generation; its share remains unchanged at 53%.  Nuclear grows from 16% to 19%, and hydro remains flat at 14%. Coal declines from 15% to 8%.
  • Russia’s energy intensity declines by 20%, slower than China (-54%), India (-32%), or the non-OECD average (-39%).
  • Despite lower emissions (-9%) in 2040, Russia becomes the most carbon-intensive economy among the 14 countries/regions in our Outlook.