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Country insight – Russia

We project Russia to remain the world’s largest energy exporter, with exports meeting over 5% of global energy demand by 2040

Highlights

6% increase

Growth in Russia’s energy consumption

4%

Renewables' contribution to global primary energy growth

20% increase

Growth in Russia’s energy production

Projections

  • Russia’s primary energy production grows by 20% between 2016 and 2040, but its share of global production dips from 10% in 2016 to 9% in 2040.
  • Russia remains the world’s largest primary energy exporter and the second-largest combined oil and gas producer, exporting 9 Mb/d of oil and 36 Bcf/d of gas.
  • Russia’s liquids production (13 Mb/d in 2040) will trail only the US and Saudi Arabia by 2040.
  • Natural gas production (72 Bcf/d in 2040) is the second largest in the world after the US.
  • Russia’s energy consumption (+6% between 2016 and 2040) is the slowest growing among BRIC countries, with India (+165%), Brazil (+60%) and China (+41%), all expanding much faster. Russia’s share of global primary energy consumption declines slightly, from 5% in 2016 to 4% in 2040.
  • Transport leads primary energy consumption growth in Russia, rising by 50% by 2040. Industry will decline by 4%.
  • Despite growing by over 7500% by 2040, renewables contribute just 2% to Russia’s primary energy demand in 2040, compared with 17% on average among the other BRIC nations.
  • Nuclear (+29% by 2040) will be the second-fastest-growing fuel followed by oil (+26%); hydro (+8%) and gas (+1%) will grow much slower, while coal consumption will decline (-32%).
  • Gas will still dominate the fuel mix with 50% (down from 52% in 2016). Oil’s share will grow from 22% today to 26% while coal’s share will decline from 13%to 8%.
  • Natural gas remains the leading fuel in power generation; its share declines slightly: from 54% in 2016 to 53% in 2040. Nuclear grows from 15% to 19%, and hydro remains flat at 15%. Coal’s share declines from 14% to 8%.
  • Russia’s energy intensity declines by 25% between 2016 and 2040, slower than China (-53%), India (-37%), or on average in the non-OECD as a whole (-41%).