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Country insight – Russia

Russia shifts towards a carbon-free economy in Rapid and Net Zero scenarios, but remains relatively unchanged in Business-as-usual (BAU)

Highlights

-1% to -11%

Decline in primary energy 2020-2050

4% to 48%

Share of renewables by 2050

24% to 92%

Share of renewables in power generation by 2050

In Net Zero renewables become the largest source of energy consumption in Russia by 2050
 
Under BAU, oil and gas demand in Russia remains flat, while under Rapid and Net Zero oil demand falls by 39% and 64% by 2050 respectively. Gas consumption falls by 22% and 61% in these two scenarios
 
Gas remains a key energy export, with production increasing across all three scenarios

 

Projections

  • Russia's economy grows at a rate of 1.1% per annum in 2018-2050, higher than 0.7% over 1990-2018.
  • Due to modest efficiency gains, Russia’s primary energy consumption is flat in BAU (-1.4% over 2018-2050) and declines slightly in Rapid (-7%) and Net Zero (-11%).
  • Gas remains the leading energy source in Russia, with its share growing to 57% of the primary energy mix in BAU, holding steady at 48% in Rapid and falling to 23% in Net Zero.
  • At the same time, renewables’ output grows significantly in all scenarios, driven mainly by wind. Renewables share of primary energy increases to 4% in BAU, 20% in Rapid and 48% in Net Zero, in which it becomes the largest source of energy.
  • Coal demand falls across all scenarios – to zero under Rapid and Net Zero by 2050.
  • Demand for oil in Russia remains almost flat in BAU (+6% over 2018-2050) and declines by 40% and 60% in Rapid and Net Zero respectively.
  • Production of gas grows across all three scenarios in Russia, reaching 671 bcm under Rapid and 917 bcm, under BAU by 2050.
  • Nuclear output grows across all three scenarios: by 17% under BAU, 32% under Rapid and 94% under Net Zero by 2050. Nuclear reaches 9% of the primary energy mix under Rapid and 13% under Net Zero.
  • These effects combine to reduce net CO2 emissions by 92% in the Net Zero scenario, 69% under Rapid and 24% under BAU.