The transition to a lower carbon fuel mix continues with renewables being the largest source of energy growth
Spencer Dale, group chief economist, discusses the 'evolving transition' scenario in relation to energy demand by fuel
By 2040 oil, coal, natural gas and non-fossil fuels will each provide around 25% of the world's energy. That's by far and away the most diversified fuel mix the world will have ever seen.Spencer Dale,
Group chief economist
The transition towards a lower carbon fuel mix is set to continue.
In the evolving transition (ET) scenario, renewable energy is the fastest growing source of energy (7% p.a.), accounting for over 40% of the increase in energy supplies, the largest contribution of any energy source.
The rapid growth in renewable energy contributes to a more diversified energy mix. By 2040 oil, gas, coal, and non-fossil fuels are projected to each provide around a quarter of the world’s energy. This would be the most diversified fuel mix ever seen.
Natural gas (1.6% p.a.) grows much faster than either oil or coal, with its share in primary energy overtaking coal and converging on oil by the end of the Outlook.
Oil (0.5% p.a.) grows over much of the Outlook, although is project to plateau towards the end of the Outlook period. Coal consumption is broadly flat, with its share in primary energy declining to 21%, its lowest share since the industrial revolution.
Primary energy consumption by fuel (bn toe)
The rapid growth in renewable energy contributes to a more diversified energy mix
Shares of primary energy
† Non-fossils includes renewables, nuclear and hydro