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Demand and supply of fuels

The transition to a lower-carbon fuel mix continues, led by renewables and natural gas

The transition to a lower-carbon energy system continues, with renewable energy and natural gas gaining in importance relative to oil and coal.

Primary energy consumption by fuel
Primary energy consumption by fuel
Shares of primary energy
Shares of primary energy

In the ET scenario, renewables and natural gas account for almost 85% of the growth in primary energy, with their importance increasing relative to all other sources of energy.


Renewable energy (7.1% p.a.) is the fastest growing source of energy, contributing half of the growth in global energy, with its share in primary energy increasing from 4% today to around 15% by 2040.

Renewables and natural gas account for 85% of energy growth


Natural gas (1.7% p.a.), grows much faster than either oil or coal, overtaking coal to be the second largest source of global energy and converging on oil by the end of the Outlook.


Oil (0.3% p.a.) increases during the first half of the Outlook, although much slower than in the past, before plateauing in the 2030s.


Coal consumption (-0.1% p.a.) is broadly flat over the Outlook, with its importance in the global energy system declining to its lowest level since before the industrial revolution.