Coal

Global coal demand flatlines, with falls in China and OECD offset by increases in India and other Asian centres

Growth in global coal consumption slows sharply relatively to the past, with falls in China and OECD offset by increasing demand in India and other emerging Asia.

In the evolving transition (ET) scenario, coal demand flatlines, in sharp contrast to the past 25 years, during which coal was the largest source of energy growth.

Much of that slowing is driven by China, where coal consumption is broadly flat over the next 10 years or so, before declining thereafter. Even so, China remains the world’s largest market for coal, accounting for 40% of global coal demand in 2040.

Coal demand within the OECD declines, largely driven by environmental policies, except in the US where the availability of low-cost natural gas is the main factor driving out coal.

In contrast, coal demand within India and other emerging Asian economies increases, as these economies continue to industrialize and electrify their economies.

India is the largest growth market for coal, with its share of global coal demand more than doubling from a little over 10% in 2016 to around a quarter by 2040.

Coal consumption growth and regional contributions (% per annum)

Coal consumption growth and regional contributions (% per annum)

India is the largest growth market for coal, with its share of global coal demand more than doubling from a little over 10% in 2016 to around a quarter by 2040

China remains the world’s largest market for coal, accounting for 40% of global coal demand in 2040        

India’s share of global coal demand more than doubles from a little over 10% in 2016 to around a quarter by 2040

Coal demand within India and other emerging Asian economies increases, as these economies continue to industrialize and electrify their economies

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