Nuclear and hydro power generation continue to grow over the Outlook, although less rapidly than overall power generation, such that their shares within overall power generation decline.
Nuclear power in the ET scenario grows at an average rate of 1.1% p.a., broadly in line with the growth seen over the past 20 years or so.
The continuing growth in nuclear power disguises two contrasting patterns. Nuclear energy within the OECD declines materially over the Outlook, as aging nuclear plants are decommissioned and there is limited investment in new capacity. In contrast, nuclear generation in China increases strongly, rising by 1000 TWh over the Outlook, with the level of nuclear generation in China by 2040 similar to that in the entire OECD.
Hydro power increases by 1.3% p.a. over the Outlook. This is much slower than the growth seen over the past 20 years, as the previous rapid expansion in Chinese hydro power subsides. In the ET scenario, China remains the largest source of growth, but the increases in hydro power become more broadly based, with Other Asia, Latin America and Africa all recording material increases.