Both nuclear and hydro power output continue to grow over the Outlook – although less rapidly than overall power generation – such that their shares within power decline.
In the evolving transition (ET) scenario, growth in nuclear energy (1.8% p.a., 59 TWh p.a.) is driven by China (51 TWh p.a.), which accounts for almost 90% of the total growth in nuclear energy. The share of nuclear energy within China’s energy demand increases from 2% today to 8% by 2040.
The overall growth in nuclear energy is dampened by declines in both the EU (-11 TWh p.a.) and US (-10 TWh p.a.) as aging nuclear plants are retired and not replaced.
Growth in hydro power (1.3% p.a., 61 TWh p.a.) is more broadly based across developing economies. Although much slower than the rapid growth seen over the past few years, China contributes the largest increase (16 TWh p.a.), supported by growth in both South and Central America (13 TWh p.a.) and Africa (11 TWh p.a.).
China accounts for almost 90% of the total growth in nuclear energy in the evolving transition scenario
In the evolving transition scenario, the share of nuclear energy demand within China increases from 2% today to 8% by 2040
The overall growth in nuclear energy is dampened by declines in both the EU and the US as ageing nuclear plants are retired and not replaced