Buildings

Improving living standards in the developing world drive increasing use of electricity in buildings

The growth of energy absorbed by the buildings sector emanates entirely from the developing ‎world, as improving wealth and living standards allow people to live and work in greater comfort. ‎

In Rapid and Net Zero, a significant expansion of energy use in buildings in developing Asia and ‎Africa – which enjoy some of the most significant increases in prosperity – is broadly offset by ‎substantial falls in the developed world as efficiency in new and existing buildings stock ‎improves, driven by regulations, carbon prices and consumer preferences. As a result, overall ‎energy use in buildings is relatively little changed over the Outlook in both Rapid (0.2% p.a.) and ‎Net Zero (0.1% p.a.). ‎

The efficiency gains are less pronounced in BAU, with energy consumed in the buildings sector ‎growing by almost 40% (1.0% p.a.) by 2050, accounting for around 40% of the overall increase in ‎primary energy. ‎

Electricity consumption increases materially in all three scenarios, driven by the greater use of ‎lighting and electrical appliances (including for space cooling) as living standards increase.‎

The increasing use of electricity crowds out the demand for oil, gas and coal which lose share in ‎all three scenarios. The shift away from these traditional energies is most pronounced in Rapid ‎and Net Zero, in which the use of oil in buildings is largely phased out by 2050, and the demand ‎for gas in buildings falls by around 50% in Rapid and over 90% in Net Zero. ‎