Bernard Looney, chief executive oficer
Our new purpose and ambition are underpinned by four fundamental judgements about the future. That the world is on an unsustainable path and its carbon budget is running out. That energy markets will undergo lasting change, shifting towards renewable and other forms of zero- or low-carbon energy. That demand for oil and gas will be increasingly challenged. And that, alongside many others, bp can contribute to the energy transition that the world wants and needs, and create value doing so.
In August, we set out a new strategy in support of this purpose and ambition. It will see bp transform from an International Oil Company focused on producing resources to an Integrated Energy Company focused on delivering solutions for customers. From IOC to IEC. And while the Covid-19 pandemic has had a huge impact on the global economy and energy markets, it has not affected our belief in and commitment to our purpose, ambition and strategy.
That belief and commitment is in no small part down to the objective analysis that goes into every edition of the Energy Outlook. It does not to try to predict precise future outcomes – any attempt to do that is doomed to fail. Instead, it helps us to understand the many uncertainties ahead – in the near and longer term – by considering a range of possible pathways the energy transition may take over the next 30 years. This year’s Outlook explores three main scenarios – Rapid, Net Zero and Business-as-usual – which span a wide range of possible outcomes. Those three scenarios have helped us to develop a strategy that we think is robust to the uncertainty around the pace and nature of the energy transition.
Three features are common across those scenarios and they form a set of core beliefs as to how energy demand is likely to change over the next three decades:
And those core beliefs lead us to three more about how the energy system will change out to 2050:
The Energy Outlook has been tracking and analysing the trajectory of the world’s energy system for the past 10 years. This year’s Outlook has been instrumental in the development of the new strategy we announced in August. I hope it is useful to everyone else seeking ways to accelerate the energy transition and get to net zero. We welcome any feedback on the content and how we can improve.
Chief executive officer