Oil demand increases to above its pre-COVID-19 level in all three scenarios, boosted by the stronger-than-expected rebound in economic growth. Oil consumption peaks in the mid-2020s in Accelerated and Net Zero and around the turn of the decade in New Momentum. Thereafter, oil consumption in Accelerated and Net Zero falls substantially; the declines in oil demand in New Momentum are slower and less marked.
The role of oil in transport falls in all three scenarios. In road transport, this decline largely reflects a combination of improving vehicle efficiency and increasing electrification. In aviation and marine, the decline in oil is driven by the increasing use of bio- and hydrogen-derived fuels.
The falls in oil demand over the outlook are accompanied by a shift in the centre of gravity of its use, with oil consumption becoming increasingly concentrated within emerging economies, and the use of oil as a feedstock, particularly in the petrochemicals sector, growing in importance.
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