Trading conditions update

This trading conditions update is produced in order to provide disclosure to investors and potential investors of current trading conditions, and to ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information, at the same time

Data to Wednesday 18 Oct 2017

The marker prices and marker margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realised by BP during the given periods.This data is normally updated every Friday at 3.30pm UK time (or nearest UK working day in the event of public holiday).

Quarter to date data are updated to the date shown at the top of this page.
Marker Prices
Marker Prices
4Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017 to date
4Q 2017 to date
Marker Prices
Brent Dated ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
49.33
1Q 2017
53.69
2Q 2017
49.64
3Q 2017
52.08
4Q 2017 to date
56.36
Marker Prices
WTI Cushing ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
49.23
1Q 2017
51.70
2Q 2017
48.11
3Q 2017
48.18
4Q 2017 to date
50.82
Marker Prices
WCS Hardisty ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
35.44
1Q 2017
38.77
2Q 2017
38.55
3Q 2017
38.16
4Q 2017 to date
40.09
Marker Prices
ANS USWC ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
50.06
1Q 2017
53.82
2Q 2017
50.61
3Q 2017
52.04
4Q 2017 to date
56.70
Marker Prices
Mars ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
46.23
1Q 2017
49.59
2Q 2017
46.92
3Q 2017
48.46
4Q 2017 to date
53.08
Marker Prices
Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
47.73
1Q 2017
51.88
2Q 2017
48.48
3Q 2017
50.73
4Q 2017 to date
55.20
Marker Prices
US gas Henry Hub first of month index ($/mmbtu)
4Q 2016
2.98
1Q 2017
3.32
2Q 2017
3.19
3Q 2017
2.99
4Q 2017 to date
2.97
Marker Prices
UK gas price - National Balance Point (p/therm)
4Q 2016
45.76
1Q 2017
48.19
2Q 2017
37.83
3Q 2017
41.59
4Q 2017 to date
45.39
Source: Platts
Light / heavy crude spreads
Light / heavy crude spreads
4Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017 to date
4Q 2017 to date
Light / heavy crude spreads
Brent vs. Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
1.59
1Q 2017
1.81
2Q 2017
1.16
3Q 2017
1.35
4Q 2017 to date
1.16
Light / heavy crude spreads
WTI CMA* vs. WCS, lagged 1 month ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
14.51
1Q 2017
14.65
2Q 2017
11.01
3Q 2017
10.08
4Q 2017 to date
11.31
Light / heavy crude spreads
WTI vs. Mars ($/bbl)
4Q 2016
3.00
1Q 2017
2.11
2Q 2017
1.19
3Q 2017
-0.28
4Q 2017 to date
-2.26
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
4Q 2016
4Q 2016
1Q 2017
1Q 2017
2Q 2017
2Q 2017
3Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017 to date
4Q 2017 to date
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
US North West
4Q 2016
14.0
1Q 2017
15.9
2Q 2017
20.5
3Q 2017
23.1
4Q 2017 to date
19.4
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
US Midwest
4Q 2016
11.1
1Q 2017
11.7
2Q 2017
14.8
3Q 2017
19.8
4Q 2017 to date
22.4
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Northwest Europe
4Q 2016
10.6
1Q 2017
10.4
2Q 2017
11.9
3Q 2017
13.5
4Q 2017 to date
12.0
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Mediterranean
4Q 2016
9.4
1Q 2017
9.7
2Q 2017
10.4
3Q 2017
12.0
4Q 2017 to date
10.8
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Australia
4Q 2016
12.5
1Q 2017
12.9
2Q 2017
12.9
3Q 2017
13.7
4Q 2017 to date
13.4
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Global Refining Marker Margin*
4Q 2016
11.4
1Q 2017
11.7
2Q 2017
13.8
3Q 2017
16.3
4Q 2017 to date
15.9
The refining margins shown above are compiled using data from third party databases, and as such may be subject to possible errors.

* The Refining Marker Margin (RMM) is a generic indicator. Actual margins realised by BP may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, including specific refinery configurations, crude slate and operating practices. For example being based on a single regional marker crude, the RMM does not include the impact of the differential between Canadian Heavy crude and WTI.

Important note - Rule of thumb

The rules of thumb were provided in March 2017, based on the then prevailing range of oil prices. They are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on BP's 2017 full-year pre-tax results.

These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon BP’s current portfolio. Please note that the relationship between oil prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil prices. A natural gas Rule of Thumb is not currently provided, reflecting the diverse contractual composition of our global gas portfolio. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results. Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of Upstream revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels, as well as in the Downstream from variations between the Refining Marker Margin (RMM) and BP's realised refining margins due to crude price levels and differentials, product price movements and other factors. The RMM rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group to changes in refining margins. Many other factors will affect BP's earnings quarter-by-quarter. In the US, the industry impact of increased cost for Conventional Ethanol RINs (Renewable Identification Number) will result in lower actual margin capture than the RMM Rule of Thumb would suggest. Actual results in individual quarters may therefore differ significantly from the estimates implied by the application of these rules of thumb.
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2017
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2017
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2017
Upstream
Oil Price - Brent +/- $1/bbl
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit

$340m

Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2017
Rosneft   
Not applicable
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
n/a
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2017
Downstream   
Refining - RMM +/- $ 1/bbl
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit

$500m

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