Trading conditions update

This trading conditions update is produced in order to provide disclosure to investors and potential investors of current trading conditions, and to ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information, at the same time

Data to Wednesday 11 July 2018

The marker prices and marker margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realised by BP during the given periods.This data is normally updated every Friday at 3.30pm UK time (or nearest UK working day in the event of public holiday).

Quarter to date data are updated to the date shown at the top of this page.
Marker Prices
Marker Prices
3Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018 to date
3Q 2018 to date
Marker Prices
Brent Dated ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
52.08
4Q 2017
61.26
1Q 2018
66.82
2Q 2018
74.39
3Q 2018 to date
76.49
Marker Prices
WTI Cushing ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
48.18
4Q 2017
55.23
1Q 2018
62.90
2Q 2018
68.02
3Q 2018 to date
73.34
Marker Prices
WCS Hardisty ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
38.16
4Q 2017
38.74
1Q 2018
36.84
2Q 2018
49.76
3Q 2018 to date
50.87
Marker Prices
ANS USWC ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
52.04
4Q 2017
61.31
1Q 2018
67.20
2Q 2018
73.93
3Q 2018 to date
77.41
Marker Prices
Mars ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
48.46
4Q 2017
57.70
1Q 2018
62.44
2Q 2018
69.47
3Q 2018 to date
70.98
Marker Prices
Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
50.73
4Q 2017
60.17
1Q 2018
65.27
2Q 2018
72.21
3Q 2018 to date
75.26
Marker Prices
US gas Henry Hub first of month index ($/mmbtu)
3Q 2017
2.99
4Q 2017
2.93
1Q 2018
3.01
2Q 2018
2.80
3Q 2018 to date
3.00
Marker Prices
UK gas price - National Balance Point (p/therm)
3Q 2017
41.59
4Q 2017
51.94
1Q 2018
57.97
2Q 2018
53.88
3Q 2018 to date
57.77
Source: Platts
Light / heavy crude spreads
Light / heavy crude spreads
3Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018 to date
3Q 2018 to date
Light / heavy crude spreads
Brent vs. Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
1.35
4Q 2017
1.08
1Q 2018
1.55
2Q 2018
2.18
3Q 2018 to date
1.23
Light / heavy crude spreads
WTI vs. Mars ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
-0.28
4Q 2017
-2.47
1Q 2018
0.46
2Q 2018
-1.45
3Q 2018 to date
2.36
Light / heavy crude spreads
WTI CMA vs. WCS, lagged 1 month* ($/bbl)
3Q 2017
10.08
4Q 2017
12.86
1Q 2018
25.52
2Q 2018
19.35
3Q 2018 to date
20.09
*The WCS differential to WTI calendar month average  is based on a quoted Platts differential and used as a generic indicator.  Actual crude differentials captured by BP’s refineries may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, such as apportionment, rationing or operational issues on third party crude logistics infrastructure.
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
3Q 2017
3Q 2017
4Q 2017
4Q 2017
1Q 2018
1Q 2018
2Q 2018
2Q 2018
3Q 2018 to date
3Q 2018 to date
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
US North West
3Q 2017
23.1
4Q 2017
15.7
1Q 2018
15.7
2Q 2018
21.2
3Q 2018 to date
15.3
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
US Midwest
3Q 2017
19.8
4Q 2017
21.0
1Q 2018
13.1
2Q 2018
18.4
3Q 2018 to date
15.1
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Northwest Europe
3Q 2017
13.5
4Q 2017
11.1
1Q 2018
9.9
2Q 2018
12.2
3Q 2018 to date
11.6
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Mediterranean
3Q 2017
12.0
4Q 2017
9.6
1Q 2018
9.4
2Q 2018
11.0
3Q 2018 to date
9.4
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Australia
3Q 2017
13.7
4Q 2017
12.2
1Q 2018
11.7
2Q 2018
11.5
3Q 2018 to date
9.4
Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM
Global Refining Marker Margin*
3Q 2017
16.3
4Q 2017
14.4
1Q 2018
11.7
2Q 2018
14.9
3Q 2018 to date
12.6
The refining margins shown above are compiled using data from third party databases, and as such may be subject to possible errors.

* The Refining Marker Margin (RMM) is a generic indicator. Actual margins realised by BP may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, including specific refinery configurations, crude slate and operating practices. For example being based on a single regional marker crude, the RMM does not include the impact of the differential between Canadian Heavy crude and WTI.

Important note - Rule of thumb

The rules of thumb were reviewed in the first quarter of 2018, based on the then prevailing range of oil prices. They are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on BP's 2018 full-year pre-tax results.  These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon BP’s current portfolio.

Please note that the relationship between oil prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil prices. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results.

Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of Upstream revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels.

A natural gas Rule of Thumb is not currently provided, reflecting the diverse contractual composition of our global gas portfolio.

In the Downstream, the Refining Marker Margin (RMM) rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group’s results to changes in refining margins. However, variations could arise between the RMM and BP's realised refining margins due, for example, to BP’s particular refinery configurations and crude slate and product mix
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2018
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2018
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2018
Upstream
Oil Price - Brent +/- $1/bbl
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit

$340m

Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2018
Rosneft   
Not applicable
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
n/a
Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2018
Downstream   
Refining - RMM +/- $ 1/bbl
Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit

$500m

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