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Trading conditions update

This trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions
 

Data to Wednesday 20 October 2021

The marker prices and marker margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realised by bp during the given periods. This data is normally updated every Friday at 3.30pm UK time (or nearest UK working day in the event of public holiday).

 

Quarter-to-date data are updated to the date shown at the top of this page.

Crude price – Brent dated
Henry Hub – gas
Marker prices 4Q 2021 to date 3Q 2021 2Q 2021 1Q 2021
4Q 2020
Brent Dated ($/bbl) 83.20 73.51 68.97 61.12 44.16
WTI Cushing ($/bbl) 80.14 70.54 66.19 58.13 42.63
WCS Hardisty ($/bbl) 65.79 56.95 53.10 46.12 31.57
ANS USWC ($/bbl) 82.71 72.66 68.58 61.07 44.82
Mars ($/bbl) 78.00 69.09 66.01 58.65 43.26
Urals (NWE – cif) ($/bbl) 80.39 70.63 66.69 59.36 44.29
US gas Henry Hub first of month index ($/mmbtu) 5.85 4.02 2.83 2.71 2.67
UK gas price – National Balance Point (p/therm) 213.19 118.81 64.79 49.82 40.46
Source: Platts
Light / heavy crude spreads 4Q 2021 to date 3Q 2021  2Q 2021 1Q 2021 4Q 2020
Brent vs. Urals (NWE – cif) ($/bbl) 2.81 2.88 2.28 1.77 -0.13
WTI vs. Mars ($/bbl) 2.14 1.45 0.18 -0.52 -0.63
WTI CMA* vs. WCS, lagged 1 month ($/bbl) 12.38 13.53 11.73 12.86 9.96
* The WCS differential to WTI calendar month average is based on a quoted Platts differential and used as a generic indicator. Actual crude differentials captured by bp’s refineries may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, such as apportionment, rationing or operational issues on third party crude logistics infrastructure.
Refining Marker Margin
Refining marker margins ($/bbl) – RMM* 4Q 2021 to date 3Q 2021  2Q 2021 1Q 2021 4Q 2020
US – North West Coast 26.6 25.6 23.8 14.0 12.3
US – Mid West 21.0 20.7 20.5 13.0 7.0
North West Europe 12.5 9.8 7.7 5.0 3.8
Mediterranean 12.6 10.4 7.6 6.0 4.6
New Zealand and South Africa
12.2 8.1 6.6 5.6 4.6
Global Refining Marker Margin 17.0 15.2 13.7 8.7 6.1

The refining margins shown above are compiled using data from third-party databases, and as such may be subject to possible errors.

 

* The Refining Marker Margin (RMM) is a generic indicator. Actual margins realised by bp may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, including specific refinery configurations, crude slate and operating practices. For example being based on a single regional marker crude, the RMM does not include the impact of the differential between Canadian Heavy crude and WTI.

 

As of 4 February 2021, the 2020 global RMM numbers have been adjusted to the 2021 portfolio basis and therefore may differ to 2020 RMM figures posted earlier.  Reported 2020 RMM figures can be found in our quarterly results stock exchange announcements and in the group databook.

 

Find out more about how bp calculates its Refining Marker Margin (RMM)

 

Important note – rules of thumb

The rules of thumb were reviewed in the first quarter of 2021, based on the then prevailing range of oil and gas prices. They are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on bp's 2021 full-year pre-tax results.


These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon bp’s current portfolio reflecting the combined oil and gas business. The weighting of the rules of thumb for Brent is an approximate split of 80% to oil production & operations and 20% to gas & low energy. The weighting of the rules of thumb for Henry Hub is an approximate split of 70% to oil production & operations and 30% to gas & low carbon energy.

 

Please note that the relationship between prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil and gas prices. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, hedge positions and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results.  In particular, hedging activity has lowered the 2021 Henry Hub rule of thumb compared to previous years and as a result should not be treated as representative of the longer-term sensitivity of the portfolio beyond 2021. 

 

Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of oil and gas revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels. 

 

In the downstream, the Refining Marker Margin (RMM) rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group’s results to changes in refining margins. However, variations could arise between the RMM and bp's realised refining margins due, for example, to bp’s particular refinery configurations and crude slate and product mix.

Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2021 Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit
Oil price*
Brent +/- $1/bbl
$340m
Natural gas price*
Henry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu
$30m 
Rosneft
Not applicable
n/a
Customers & products refining margin
RMM +/- $ 1/bbl
$450m 
*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy