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Trading conditions update

This trading conditions update is produced in order to provide disclosure to investors and potential investors of current trading conditions, and to ensure that they all receive equal access to the same information, at the same time

Data to Wednesday 5 December 2018

The marker prices and marker margins below do not represent the actual prices or margins realised by BP during the given periods.This data is normally updated every Friday at 3.30pm UK time (or nearest UK working day in the event of public holiday).

 

Quarter to date data are updated to the date shown at the top of this page.

Marker Prices

4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 to date
Brent Dated ($/bbl) 61.26 66.82 74.39 75.16 72.36
WTI Cushing ($/bbl) 55.23 62.90 68.02 69.63 63.62
WCS Hardisty ($/bbl) 38.74 36.84 49.76 40.33 22.47
ANS USWC ($/bbl)

61.31

67.20 73.93 75.26 73.24
Mars ($/bbl) 57.70 62.44 69.47 70.79 68.27
Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl) 60.17 65.27  72.21 73.98 71.21
US gas Henry Hub first of month index ($/mmbtu) 2.93 3.01 2.80  2.91 3.65
 UK gas price - National Balance Point (p/therm) 51.94 57.97 53.88 64.46 65.39

Source: Platts

Light / heavy crude spreads 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 to date
Brent vs. Urals (NWE - cif) ($/bbl) 1.08 1.55 2.18 1.18 1.15
WTI vs. Mars ($/bbl) -2.47 0.46  -1.45  -1.16 -4.66
WTI CMA vs. WCS, lagged 1 month* ($/bbl) 12.86 25.52 19.35 24.02 39.06

*The WCS differential to WTI calendar month average is based on a quoted Platts differential and used as a generic indicator. Actual crude differentials captured by BP’s refineries may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, such as apportionment, rationing or operational issues on third party crude logistics infrastructure.

Refining Marker Margins ($/bbl) - RMM 4Q 2017 1Q 2018 2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 to date
US North West  15.7 15.7 21.2 15.5 13.0
US Midwest 21.0  13.1 18.4 19.1 15.5
 Northwest Europe  11.1  9.9 12.2  12.8 9.9
Mediterranean 9.6 9.4 11.0 10.7 8.7
Australia 12.2  11.7 11.5 12.5 10.9
 Global Refining Marker Margin* 14.4  11.7 14.9  14.7 11.9

The refining margins shown above are compiled using data from third party databases, and as such may be subject to possible errors.

 

* The Refining Marker Margin (RMM) is a generic indicator. Actual margins realised by BP may vary significantly due to a variety of factors, including specific refinery configurations, crude slate and operating practices. For example being based on a single regional marker crude, the RMM does not include the impact of the differential between Canadian Heavy crude and WTI.

 

Find out more about how BP calculates its Refining Marker Margin (RMM)

 

Important note - Rule of thumb

 

The rules of thumb were reviewed in the first quarter of 2018, based on the then prevailing range of oil prices. They are intended to give directional indicators of the impact of changes in the trading environment on BP's 2018 full-year pre-tax results. These rules of thumb are approximate and based upon BP’s current portfolio.

 

Please note that the relationship between oil prices and results is not necessarily linear across a wide range of oil prices. Changes in margins, differentials, seasonal demand patterns, operational issues, and other factors including timing of acquisition and divestment activity, can also materially impact the results.

 

Significant differences between the estimates implied by the application of the rules of thumb and the actual results themselves may also arise due to complex mechanisms for calculating government shares of Upstream revenues in some jurisdictions, depending on price levels.

A natural gas Rule of Thumb is not currently provided, reflecting the diverse contractual composition of our global gas portfolio.

 

In the Downstream, the Refining Marker Margin (RMM) rule of thumb reflects the sensitivity of the group’s results to changes in refining margins. However, variations could arise between the RMM and BP's realised refining margins due, for example, to BP’s particular refinery configurations and crude slate and product mix

Operating environment Rules of Thumb for the full year 2018 Impact on pre-tax Replacement Cost Operating Profit
Upstream
Oil Price - Brent +/- $1/bbl
$340m
Rosneft
Not applicable
n/a
Downstream
Refining - RMM +/- $ 1/bbl
$500m