We are aiming to be net zero across operations, production and sales. By 2050 or sooner, we aim to get to net zero:
Our aim 1 is to be net zero across our entire operations on an absolute basis by 2050 or sooner. This aim relates to our Scope 1 (from running the assets within our operational control boundary) and Scope 2 (associated with producing the electricity, heating and cooling that is bought in to run those operations) GHG emissions.
These emissions were around 54.4MtCO2e in 2019. We are targeting a 20% reduction in our aim 1 operational emissions by 2025 and will aim for a 50% reduction by 2030 against our 2019 baseline.
Our aim 2 is to be net zero on an absolute basis across the carbon in our upstream oil and gas production by 2050 or sooner.
This is our Scope 3 aim and is based on bp’s net share of productiona (around 361MtCO2 in 2019). It is associated with the CO2 emissions from the combustion of upstream production of crude oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGLs). We are now targeting a 10-15% reduction by 2025 and will aim for 20-30% by 2030 against our 2019 baseline.
Becoming net zero on an absolute basis across the carbon in our upstream oil and gas production is in part linked to reducing that production. We believe that the Scope 3 emissions associated with our upstream oil and gas production will not exceed their 2019 peak and have stated that we are aiming for a reduction in oil and gas production by around 25% by 2030, compared to 2019 (excluding production from Rosneft). The estimated Scope 3 emissions from the carbon in our upstream oil and gas production were 307MtCO2 in 2022 – a slight increase from 304MtCO2 in 2021, mainly associated with an increase in underlying production due to the ramp-up of major projects and higher asset performance.
Since 2019, estimated Scope 3 emissions have reduced by 15%, which is at the upper end of our revised 2025 target of a 10-15% reduction against our 2019 baseline.
Our aim 3 is to reduce to net zero the carbon intensity of the energy productsb we sell by 2050 or sooner.
This aim applies to the average carbon intensity of the energy products we sell. It is estimated on a lifecycle (full value chain) basis from the use, production, and distribution of sold energy products per unit of energy (MJ) delivered.
In February 2022, we expanded the scope of aim 3 to include physically traded energy products as well as marketed sales. In future, it may also cover certain other products, for example, those associated with land carbon projects. Progress on our aim 3 is directly linked to our strategy to grow our low carbon presence and provide products that have lower lifecycle emissions. We expect the execution of our strategy across our three strategic pillars – resilient hydrocarbons, convenience and mobility, and low carbon energy – to support delivery of our aim 3 up to, and beyond, 2030.
In 2022 the average carbon intensity of sold energy products was 77gCO2e/MJ. This represents a 2% decrease from our 2019 baseline, primarily driven by a reduction in the lifecycle emissions associated with the sold energy products.
Our aim 4 is to install methane measurement at all our existing major oil and gas processing sites by 2023, publish the data, and then drive a 50% reduction in methane intensitya of our operations. And we will work to influence our joint ventures to set their own methane intensity targets of 0.2%.
We progressed the deployment of our methane measurement approach across all our existing major oil and gas processing sites in 2022, with the introduction of enhanced metering, software for flare efficiency and predictive emissions monitoring on gas turbines.
We remain on course to deliver our methane measurement aim by the end of 2023.Our methane intensity in 2022 was 0.05% – an improvement from 0.07% in 2021b. Methane emissions from upstream operations, used to calculate our intensity, continued on the declining trend they have followed since 2016 (when we reported 111kt), decreasing by 35% to around 28kt, from 43kt in 2021. Variations in production and divestments accounted for approximately 85% of the absolute reductions reported for 2022, and methane reductions from SERs accounted for 14%.
We continue to progress our work under the World Bank's Zero Routine Flaring Initiative by 2030 (and by 2025 in our bpx energy operations).
Our aim 5 is to increase the proportion of investment we make into our non-oil and gas businesses. Over time, as investment goes up in low and zero carbon, we see it going down in oil and gas.
In 2022, our transition growth investment was $4.9bn compared to $2.4bn in 2021 – this was around 30% of total capital expenditure for the year, up from around 3% in 2019.
As we pursue our net zero ambition, we see our annual transition growth investment reaching $6-8 billion in 2025 and are aiming for it to reach $7-9 billion in 2030.
As announced in February 2023, going forward we are targeting increasing the proportion of our annual capital expenditure invested in transition growth engines to more than 40% of total spend by 2025 and aiming for it to rise to around 50% by 2030.