Country insights: China

We project that China's energy demand growth slows to 1.9% p.a. through the Outlook, less than one third of its pace in the last 20 years (6.3% p.a.)

Growth in China’s energy consumption

Share of global energy consumption in 2035

Growth in China’s energy production

  • Energy production rises by 38% while consumption grows by 47% between 2015 and 2035, much faster than the global average of 29% and 31% respectively.
  • China’s share in global energy demand rises from 23% in 2015 to 26% in 2035, while its growth contributes 35% to the world’s net increase.
  • China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 64% in 2015 to 42% in 2035 and natural gas nearly doubling to 11%; oil’s share rises slightly from 18% to 20%.
  • Demand for oil (+61%) and gas (+186%) expands, while coal demand declines slightly (-2%). Renewables in power (+695%), nuclear (+644%) and hydro (+38%) also grow fast.
  • Coal demand peaks in the mid- 2020s and then declines by 1.1% p.a. from 2026 to 2035. However, China remains the world’s largest consumer of coal throughout the Outlook, accounting for 47% of global coal demand in 2035.
  • Energy production as a share of consumption drops from 84% in 2015 to 79% by 2035; China remains the world's largest net importer of energy.
  • Nuclear increases by 10.6% p.a. from 2015 to 2035 and China accounts for 31% of global nuclear generation.
  • Fossil fuels production continues to rise with increases in gas (+146%) and coal (+1%) more than offsetting declines in oil (-13%).
  • By 2035 China is the second largest shale gas producer, after the US, growing to 12.4 Bcf/d by 2035.
  • China’s energy import dependence ratio rises from 16% in 2015 to 21% in 2035.
  • Oil import dependence rises from 61% in 2015 to 79% in 2035. Gas dependence rises from 30% to 40% in 2035.
  • With the economy expanding by 167% from 2015 to 2035, China’s energy intensity declines by 45%.

Related content