In the Outlook’s Evolving Transition scenario, fast growth in developing economies drives up global energy demand about a third higher. Meanwhile, the global energy mix is the most diverse the world has ever seen by 2040, with oil, gas, coal and non-fossil fuels each contributing around a quarter of total consumption.
As for the U.S. energy outlook in particular, BP’s Evolving Transition scenario projects that:
- The U.S. becomes energy self-sufficient in the early 2020s.
- The U.S. maintains its position as the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas to 2040. The share of renewables in the U.S. fuel mix grows from 5 percent today to 17 percent in 2040.
- Natural gas becomes America’s leading fuel, accounting for 40 percent of U.S. energy consumption in 2040, compared with 32 percent today.
- Oil’s share of U.S. energy consumption falls from 36% today to 30% in 2040, while coal’s share plunges from 16% to 5%.
- U.S. energy consumption is essentially flat, growing by just 1%.
- The energy intensity of America’s economy — the amount of energy required per unit of GDP — declines by 35%.
- Flat energy consumption combined with a shift in the fuel mix (more renewables and gas; less coal and oil) contributes to a 21% decline in America’s carbon dioxide emissions from energy use.