This new publication looks at how the energy we use in our everyday lives may change over the next 30 years. It highlights some of the main opportunities and uncertainties of energy in industry, transport and buildings. The energy transition is likely to increase the range of energy choices available to energy users, so insights like these are more necessary than ever.
This chapter follows the publication of the wider bp Energy Outlook 2023 in January. For the bigger picture you can download the full report here.
The Outlook is focused on three scenarios (Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum) and they explore what may happen to energy over the next three decades.
These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen, or what bp would like to happen. Rather, they are designed to span a wide range of possible outcomes. In doing so, they can inform bp’s core beliefs about the energy transition and help to shape a bp strategy that is resilient to the uncertainty surrounding the speed and nature of the energy transition.
Accelerated and Net Zero explore how different elements of the energy system might change to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. They can be viewed as ‘what if’ scenarios: what might need to change if the world collectively takes action for CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2e) to fall by around 75% by 2050 (relative to 2019 levels) in Accelerated and over 95% in Net Zero.
New Momentum is designed to capture the broad trajectory along which the global energy system is currently travelling. It places weight on the marked increase in global ambition for decarbonization in recent years, as well as on the manner and speed of it over the recent past. CO2e emissions in New Momentum peak in the late-2020s and by 2050, are around 20% below 2019 levels.
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