BP Energy Outlook

The Energy Outlook sets out a base case which outlines the 'most likely' path for global energy markets until 2035, based on assumptions and judgments about future changes in policy, technology and the economy. The Outlook also develops alternative cases to explore key uncertainties

In the base case, the world’s economy almost doubles in size over the Outlook period, driven by fast-growing emerging economies, as more than two billion people are lifted from low incomes.

This rising prosperity drives an increase in global energy demand, although the extent of this growth is substantially offset by rapid gains in energy efficiency. Energy demand increases by only around 30% - around a third as much as the expected growth in the global economy.

The fuel mix continues to adjust: although oil, gas and coal remain the dominant source of energy, renewables, together with nuclear and hydro energy, provide half of the additional energy required out to 2035. Natural gas is expected to grow faster than oil or coal, helped by the rapid growth of liquefied natural gas increasing the accessibility of gas across the globe.

The most likely path sees carbon emissions from energy continuing to increase, indicating the need for further policy action and raising important choices and opportunities for our industry.

Exploring four themes

Beyond the base case, the BP Energy Outlook examines some of the big issues that will shape energy supply and demand through to 2035 - and beyond.

Key uncertainties

There are many risks and uncertainties that could affect the trends discussed in the base case. By varying a few of the key assumptions and judgments underpinning the base case and assessing their impact, we explore ways in which three areas central to the energy transition story could play out in the next two decades.

Looking further ahead

Key downloads