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Energy Outlook

Last updated:
5 July 2023
Energy Outlook 2023 considers the recent disruption to global energy supplies and associated impacts on global prices, and explores how this could affect the energy transition out to 2050
Energy Outlook 2024 identifier

bp Energy Outlook 2024 – launch webcast

This year’s Energy Outlook considers the major forces influencing global energy demand and supply flows, and the prospects for the energy transition out to 2050.

  

At this year’s launch, Spencer Dale, bp’s chief economist, will discuss the Outlook’s findings and what they could mean for the future of energy.

 

  • Wednesday 10 July 2024
  • 1-2.15pm BST
  • 8-9.15am EST

The outlook for energy in three scenarios

The 2023 Energy Outlook, published in January, uses three scenarios: AcceleratedNet Zero and New Momentum, to discuss the outlook for different fuels and energy sources, such as oil, natural gas, renewables and low-carbon hydrogen.

 

How energy is used

An additional chapter, How energy is used, published in July, contains further analysis that uses the same three scenarios to discuss the outlook for end-use energy demand – in particular, across the industry, buildings and transport sectors.


This new chapter of Energy Outlook 2023 provides a deep dive into how energy is ultimately used in industry, buildings and transport. The energy transition and the development of a wide range of low-carbon energy sources is likely to greatly increase the range of energy choices available to energy users. The chapter overview considers how the energy used in our everyday lives may change over the next 30 years and highlights some of the main uncertainties and opportunities associated with this changing use of energy.

Three sectors in focus

  • Industry
    Industry
    Industry comprises hundreds of distinct processes for producing goods and materials. The largest individual contributors to energy demand are iron and steel, chemicals (including petrochemicals) and the energy industry itself
  • Buildings
    Buildings
    The largest requirement for energy in residential and commercial buildings globally is for space and water heating, which combined make up almost 50% of the energy used in buildings, while energy for cooking makes up another 25%
  • Transport
    Transport
    As increasing prosperity brings increased levels of vehicle ownership, there is a shift from oil products to electricity as main energy carrier for light vehicles. EVs will become the dominant technology in light-duty transport by 2040

Fuel types

We discuss the outlook for the main sources of fuel across the three scenarios

  • Oil
    Oil
    In bp’s Energy Outlook 2023, global oil demand plateaus over the next 10 years or so before declining over the rest of the outlook, driven in part by the falling use of oil in road transport as vehicles become more efficient and are increasingly fuelled by alternative energy sources
  • Natural gas
    Natural gas
    In bp’s Energy Outlook 2023, the prospects for natural gas depend on the outcome of two significant but opposing trends: increasing demand in emerging economies as they grow and industrialize, offset by a shift away from natural gas to lower-carbon energy led by the developed world
  • Renewable energy
    Renewable energy
    In bp’s Energy Outlook 2023, wind and solar power expands rapidly, driven by increasing cost competitiveness and policies supporting a shift to low-carbon electricity and green hydrogen
  • Electricity
    Electricity
    In bp’s Energy Outlook 2023, electricity demand grows robustly over the outlook, driven by growing prosperity in emerging economies and increasing electrification of the global energy system
  • Hydrogen
    Hydrogen
    In bp’s Energy Outlook 2023, the use of low-carbon hydrogen grows as the world transitions to a more sustainable energy system, helping to decarbonize hard-to-abate processes and activities in industry and transport
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