Country and regional insights

Summary

• Global GDP growth averages 2.5% per year over the Outlook. This is weaker than average global growth of 3.4% over the past 25 years, mostly due to lower global population growth.
• Primary energy demand increases by nearly 10% to 2050 in Current Trajectory but declines by 25% in Below 2° due to greater improvements in energy efficiency. Emerging economies excluding China significantly increase demand in both scenarios out to 2035.
• Oil demand is broadly stable over the next decade, supported by increasing demand for petrochemical feedstocks. However, electrification and fuel efficiency ultimately force oil demand to fall by over 15% in Current Trajectory and by two-thirds in Below 2° in 2023-50.
• The outlook for natural gas is highly dependent on the pace of the energy transition, increasing 20% in Current Trajectory and decreasing 55% in Below 2° in 2023-50. In Current Trajectory, over 80% of the growth out to 2035 occurs in emerging economies.

• Coal’s share of primary energy falls around 45% and 80% in Current Trajectory and Below 2° respectively, with most of the decline from the power sector.
• Modern bioenergy, which includes solid biomass, biofuels and biomethane, increases 1.7-2.7% per year on average in 2023-50.
• Electricity generation roughly doubles in Current Trajectory and more than doubles in Below 2° in 2023-50. This is led by significant growth in wind and solar, which account for between half and three-quarters of all electricity generation in 2050.
• In Below 2°, low carbon hydrogen reaches significant deployment to decarbonize hard-to-abate processes and sectors. In this scenario, production reaches 355Mt per annum by 2050 and is 62% green.
• As the energy system decarbonizes, net emissions decline in both scenarios from 41GtCO₂e in 2023 to 31GtCO₂e in Current Trajectory and 4GtCO₂e in Below 2° by 2050. In the latter scenario, CCS accounts for 5.5Gt of the emissions reduction in 2050. 
  

Summary

• Primary energy consumption decreases between 25% and 50% in Current Trajectory and Below 2° respectively compared to 2023 levels.
• Despite the decline in primary energy, renewables grow by around 140% in Current Trajectory by 2050. This shows that the EU is in the substitution phase of the energy transition, with low carbon sources crowding out oil, natural gas, and coal, which decline by 68%, 46%, and 84% respectively. In Below 2°, the decline of all fossil fuels is accelerated, with each declining between 80% and 95%.
• Solar and wind deployment increases four-fold in both scenarios, reaching around 2,000GW of installed capacity by 2050. This expansion is accompanied by a rapid electrification. Electricity generation grows between 70% and 80% over the period 2023–50, depending on the scenario.

• The decline in oil demand is largely explained by the electrification of the transport sector which accounts for around 75% of the decline in both scenarios to 2050, with industry contributing approximately another 15%. Oil demand from road transportation falls by more than 4Mb/d in Current Trajectory and by almost 5Mb/d in Below 2°. At the same time, electricity demand from the road transport sector increases by 4EJ in both scenarios.
• Natural gas consumption in Current Trajectory declines by just over 5EJ by 2050, compared to around 12EJ in 2023. The electrification of final energy demand, the increasing replacement of gas with renewable energy in power generation, and the growing use of biomethane are the key drivers of this decline. In Below 2°, the decline in natural gas consumption is sharper — around 80% by 2050 — as the energy system undergoes deep decarbonization.
• Bioenergy increases by around 40% by 2050 in Current Trajectory, driven primarily by the rise in biomethane consumption. In Below 2°, however, bioenergy consumption declines slightly — by about 4% — mainly due to the reduced use of biomass in the power sector, as it is increasingly displaced by renewable energy.
  

Summary

• The US economy grows by 1.9% per year from 2023-50, marginally lower than the 2.1% per year of the last decade. 
• Total final energy consumption growth slows and peaks by the end of the decade as energy efficiency continues to improve.
• Natural gas production increases by around 240Bcm by 2035 in Current Trajectory as exports roughly double over this period. Exports grow to over 300Bcm by 2050 in Current Trajectory but fall back to below current levels in Below 2° as the world prioritizes renewables.
• Natural gas demand grows by almost 15% by 2035 in Current Trajectory, with most of this being used to support power generation.
• Power demand grows at around 2% per year over the next decade with data centres accounting for 40% of this demand.
• Net emissions continue to decline with a 40% reduction by 2050 in Current Trajectory and nearly a 100% reduction in Below 2°.

• Electricity grows from 21% of total final consumption in 2023 to around 40% in Current Trajectory and 60% in Below 2°.
• Wind and solar’s share of power generation rises from 15% in 2023 to around 60-70% in 2050.
• Tight oil production declines to 10Mb/d by 2050 as falling demand disproportionately impacts non-OPEC+ producers.
• Net oil exports remain around 3Mb/d through 2035 in Current Trajectory as domestic demand and production fall at the same pace. In Below 2°, net exports decrease 75% vs 2024 levels as OPEC+ gains market share.
• Coal’s share in the primary energy mix drops from 9% to 1% by 2050 in both scenarios.
• Nuclear capacity rises to 100GW by 2050 in Current Trajectory, driven primarily by lifetime extensions of the existing fleet.
• Low carbon hydrogen production grows to over 10Mt in 2050 in Current Trajectory and nearly 60Mt in Below 2°.
  

Summary

• China’s economy grows at a rate of 2.5% per year from 2023-50, slowing down from the growth rate over the previous 20 years of 8%.
• By 2035, primary energy consumption grows by 5% in Current Trajectory while it declines by 6% in Below 2° compared to 2023 levels.
• The contribution of renewables in primary energy consumption almost triples from 10EJ in 2023 to around 30EJ in 2035 in Current Trajectory.
• Net carbon emissions fall by around 60%-100% by 2050 compared to 2023 levels, as electrification expands and renewable energy deployment accelerates across the energy system.
• Nuclear power has a growing role, with its share in primary energy increasing from 1% in 2023 to around 5% in 2050 in Current Trajectory, and 8% in Below 2°.

• Oil demand declines under both scenarios, decreasing by 30% in 2050 in Current Trajectory, and over 70% in Below 2°, compared to 2023.
• Natural gas demand shows different trends in the two scenarios. The share of natural gas consumption in primary energy decreases from 9% in 2023 to 7% in Below 2° but increases to 16% in Current Trajectory in 2050.
• Coal’s share in primary energy drops in Current Trajectory and Below 2°, to around 25% and under 10% respectively by 2050, from 59% in 2023. The fall in coal use is mainly offset by increasing deployment of renewables in power.
• Modern bioenergy demand increases under both scenarios, by a factor of almost two in Current Trajectory and more than four in Below 2° compared to 2023 levels.
  

Summary

• India’s economy grows at a rate of 5.0% per year in 2023-50, double the rate of growth of the global economy, and the fastest growing region in the Outlook.
• Primary energy consumption grows strongly and by 2050, India accounts for 12% of the world’s demand in both scenarios, up from 7% in 2023.
• In Current Trajectory, coal remains India’s largest source of energy, with its share in the energy mix staying above 40% in 2050. However, in Below 2° coal’s share drops sharply to 16%.
• India’s consumption of natural gas increases in both scenarios, growing on average by 1-3% per year to 2050. Industrial demand for gas is the key growth driver in both scenarios.

• Oil demand grows from 5Mb/d in 2023 to 9Mb/d in 2050 in Current Trajectory – 10% of global oil consumption.
• Renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Below 2°, and the second largest in Current Trajectory.
• Electricity plays an increasingly important role in meeting India’s energy needs. In 2023 around 20% of energy was consumed in the form of electricity. By 2050, this grows to over 30% in Current Trajectory and to around 50% in Below 2°.
• Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In Current Trajectory, carbon emissions increase by around 60% between 2023 and 2050. However, they decline by almost 70% in Below 2°.

Summary

• Brazil’s economy grows at a rate of 1.4% per year in 2023-50, compared to 2.3% per year over the past 20 years.
• Primary energy grows by 22% by 2050 in Current Trajectory, while it decreases by 3% in Below 2°.
• Power accounts for 80% of the growth of primary energy in Current Trajectory, with solar and wind the biggest contributors, so that by 2050 fossil fuels make up around 10% of total power generation. In Below 2°, less than 5% of total power is generated by fossil fuels in 2050.
• In absolute levels, oil demand grows moderately in Current Trajectory to 2.9Mb/d in 2035, falling back to 2.3Mb/d in 2050, in line with 2019 levels. However, due to the electrification of the economy, the share of oil in total primary energy falls from 40% in 2023 to 30% in 2050. In Below 2°, oil demand falls to below 1Mb/d in 2050, accounting for 12% of total primary energy.

• Oil production grows to 6Mb/d in both scenarios in 2035, up from the current 3.6Mb/d. By 2050, it drops by 25% in Current Trajectory and by 30% in Below 2° compared to 2023.
• Within the transport sector, the share of biofuels in total final consumption grows to just above 25% in 2035 in both scenarios. By 2050, biofuels’ share remains over 20% in Current Trajectory, while in Below 2°, that share drops to around 15% due to faster electrification of road transport.
• In both scenarios, Brazil’s biomethane production grows 20-fold by 2050, up to 8Bcm in Current Trajectory, from 0.4Bcm in 2023.
• In Current Trajectory, CO₂ emissions decline by 9% in 2050, while they fall by 90% in Below 2°, driven by transport and industry.
  

Summary

• The UK’s economy grows at a rate of 1.5% a year in 2023-50, closely matching the pace seen over the previous 20 years. With slow population growth, most of the economic expansion reflects rising productivity as measured by GDP per capita.
• Primary energy consumption decreases in both scenarios out to 2050, falling by 21% and 27% in Current Trajectory and Below 2°, respectively. This reflects gains in energy efficiency and gradual deindustrialization, which more than offset the impact of economic growth on energy demand.
• The UK economy becomes increasingly electrified in both scenarios. The share of electricity in total final consumption rises from 20% in 2023, to 45% by 2050 in Current Trajectory and to 60% in Below 2°.
• The shift towards electric vehicles contributes to lower oil demand in both scenarios. Oil consumption declines from 1.3Mb/d in 2023, to 0.5Mb/d by 2050 in Current Trajectory and to 0.1Mb/d in Below 2°.

• Both scenarios show rising power demand out to 2050, with renewables taking centre stage, nuclear expanding steadily, and a sharp decline – but continued reliance – on unabated gas. Hydropower and biomass continue to play minor roles, while CCUS and hydrogen emerge as nascent but growing contributors at the margins.
• Solar and wind generation rises from almost 100TWh in 2023, to over 400TWh by 2050 in Current Trajectory and around 550TWh in Below 2°. Their combined share in the electricity mix grows from 30% to approximately 75% in both cases.
• Natural gas consumption is expected to decline steadily, though it continues to play an important role in both scenarios. Annual demand falls from 64Bcm in 2023, to 40Bcm by 2050 in Current Trajectory and 32Bcm in Below 2°.
• Net CO₂ emissions from the energy sector decline from 335Mt in 2023, to around 115Mt by 2050 in Current Trajectory and around -50Mt in Below 2°. CO₂ removal technologies make negative emissions possible.
  

Summary

• Mexico’s economy grows at a rate of 1.6% per year in 2023-50, aligned with the growth rate of 1.7% seen over the previous 20 years.
• By 2035, energy consumption (TFC) growth slows slightly from 1.1% over the last two decades to 1.0% in Current Trajectory as fossil related consumption slows.
• Energy related carbon emissions fall slightly by 0.5% per year in Current Trajectory by 2050, and by over 5% per year in Below 2°, as the energy system electrifies and renewable energy grows strongly.
• The most significant change in Mexico’s power mix comes from solar, which grows rapidly in both scenarios. Gas’s share in power generation stays at around 60% in Current Trajectory and falls to 40% in Below 2° by 2035.
• Oil production (including NGLs) remains close to 2Mb/d in Current Trajectory in the short term but falls in both scenarios by 2050, reaching 750kb/d in Current Trajectory and 250kb/d in Below 2°.

• Oil demand declines under both scenarios, decreasing 0.4% by 2035 in Current Trajectory, and nearly 2% in Below 2°, compared to 2023.
• Gas pipeline imports increase in both scenarios to facilitate growth in gas-fired generation and LNG exports. LNG exports reach 20Bcm in Current Trajectory and almost 10Bcm in Below 2° over the next decade.
• Natural gas’s share of primary energy remains between 35-40% of the primary energy mix in both scenarios through 2035, but falls sharply to around 25% by 2050 in Below 2°.
• After growing by around 2% per year over the last decade, electricity demand accelerates to around 3% per year to 2035 in both scenarios.
  

Summary

• As per other developed economies, primary energy consumption falls in both Current Trajectory and Below 2°. Similarly, total final consumption falls, by 7% and 18% respectively by 2050.
• Low carbon’s share of primary energy rises from around 10% in 2023 to 50% and around 75% in 2050 in Current Trajectory and Below 2° respectively, fuelling continued decarbonization.
• Total final oil consumption nearly halves by 2050 in Current Trajectory driven by declining use in road transportation.
• In Current Trajectory, power generation grows strongly by over 100% to 2050 as electrification gathers pace – with electricity’s share of final energy demand doubling to 45% in 2050.

• Fuelling this growth and substituting existing fossil generation, wind and solar power capacity grows five-fold by 2050 in Current Trajectory and ten-fold by 2050 in Below 2°.
• Coal’s share of power generation falls by more than a half – from 40% in 2023 to 18% and zero in 2035 – in Current Trajectory and Below 2° respectively.
• Natural gas consumption declines by 16% by 2035 in Current Trajectory.
• Bioenergy primary energy consumption grows over 50% by 2035 and over 120% by 2050 in Current Trajectory, driven mostly by growth in sustainable aviation fuels.