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Developed economies

10 July 2024
The energy system continues to decarbonize, with the share of primary energy consumption from renewables increasing four-fold by 2050 compared to 2022 in Current Trajectory, and six-fold in Net Zero


-0.4 to 4.9 Gt

CO2e carbon emissions in 2050


22% to 40%

decrease in energy demand by 2050 compared to 2022


2.9% to 7.3%

average annual increase in low carbon hydrogen demand


731 to 1,280 Bcm

natural gas consumption in 2050


Oil, natural gas and coal consumption each decrease in both scenarios between 2022 and 2050
Total final consumption decreases in both scenarios – decreasing by 40% in Net Zero between 2022 and 2050
Solar and wind generate two-thirds of electricity in Net Zero in 2050


  • GDP grows at an average rate of 1.2% per year between 2022 and 2050.
  • Carbon emissions fall from 12 Gt of CO2e in 2022 to negative emissions in Net Zero by 2050, however around 5 Gt of CO2e emissions remain in 2050 in Current Trajectory.
  • Energy demand decreases by 22% and 40% respectively in Current Trajectory and Net Zero between 2022 and 2050, due to increasing energy efficiency.
  • Renewables expand over the outlook, with their share in primary energy increasing from 9% in 2022 to 37% and 56% in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively.
  • Electricity generation increases between 2022 and 2050 in the two scenarios, by 58% in Current Trajectory and 78% in Net Zero, equating to average increases of 1.6% and 2.1% per year respectively.
  • There is an increased demand for low carbon hydrogen in 2050 compared to 2022. In Current Trajectory, average annual growth of 2.9% is required to meet demand, while in Net Zero, 7.3% annual growth is required.
  • Oil demand falls by more than half from 44 Mb/d in 2022 to 21 Mb/d in 2050 in Current Trajectory. In Net Zero, oil demand in 2050 falls to around 7 Mb/d. 
  • Natural gas demand also falls over the outlook, although not as significantly as oil. Natural gas consumption in 2050 is 1,280 Bcm and 731 Bcm in Current Trajectory and Net Zero respectively, equating to 76% and 44% of the consumption level from 2022.
  • Consumption of coal provided 31 EJ of energy in 2022, equating to 15% of primary energy consumption. In 2050, coal’s share of primary energy consumption will be under 5% in Current Trajectory, and under 3% in Net Zero.