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Country insight – Brazil

1 February 2023
Strong growth in renewable electricity and bioenergy leads the decarbonization of Brazil’s energy system. Wind and hydropower become the major sources of energy in all scenarios by 2050


-2% to 18%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios

6% to 23%

share of oil in primary energy in 2050

45% to 61%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

-14% to -100%

net change in CO2 emissions by 2050 relative to 2019

Primary energy consumption grows to 2050 in New Momentum but remains broadly stable at around late 2020's levels in Net Zero
Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, providing over half of primary energy in Accelerated and Net Zero
Electricity in final consumption grows by over 50% in all three scenarios


  • Brazil’s economy grows at a rate of 0.9% per year in 2019-2050, down from 1.4% per year over the past 20 years.
  • Primary energy grows in all three scenarios in the short term. By 2050 it falls by 2% in Net Zero while it grows by 6% in Accelerated and by 18% in New Momentum. Average growth per year is in the range of -0.1% to 0.5%.
  • The share of gas in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (8%) over the past 15 years. However, gas’ share increases in New Momentum but declines slightly in Accelerated and Net Zero, reaching between 6% and 11% by 2050.
  • The share of oil in total primary energy over the past 30 years has been broadly stable at around 35%. However, oil’s share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 23% by 2050.
  • Renewables (inc. biofuels) are Brazil’s largest source of primary energy by 2050. The share of wind in renewable generation reaches ~30% in New Momentum and at ~40% it overtakes hydro as the main source of renewable generation in Accelerated and Net Zero.
  • Electricity generation in 2050 is around two times that in 2019 in all scenarios, with solar and wind power accounting for 80% to 97% of that growth.
  • Brazil’s hydrogen demand increases by 16x in New Momentum and 110x in Net Zero. 60% of the hydrogen growth is from green hydrogen in New Momentum, with around 70% of hydrogen growth from green hydrogen in Accelerated and Net Zero.
  • Carbon emissions fall by 2050 in all scenarios. In New Momentum, emissions fall by 14% relative to 2019. In Accelerated and Net Zero, they start to decline earlier and faster, decreasing by 68% and 100% by 2050.