Country insight – Brazil

Projections

• Energy consumption in Brazil increases by 2.2% p.a., much faster than the global growth of 1.2% p.a. Its share on global energy consumption increases to 3% by 2040.
• Strong energy consumption growth implies that Brazilian energy per capita converges to the global average over the forecast period.
• The consumption of every fuel increases. However, most the growth is in renewables including biofuels (+71 Mtoe, + 175%), oil (46 Mtoe, + 39%) and natural gas (+38 Mtoe, + 114%).
• The energy mix shifts toward non-fossil fuels as hydro, renewables and nuclear account for almost 50% of the mix by 2040, up from 43% in 2017.
• The share of renewables in power generation doubles to one-third in 2040. The use of gas also gains weight in the power mix while limited growth in hydro capacity means that it loses share.
• Energy demand grows in every final sector. However, buildings grow the fastest (+91%), followed by transport (62%) and non-combusted (52%) and industry (51%).
• Liquids demand grows by over 1 Mb/d but growth decelerates. In fact, liquids demand plateaus slightly above 4 Mb/d in the late 2030s.
• Energy production increases by 2.6% p.a. and Brazil becomes a net energy exporter.
• Brazil remains the world’s second largest user of biofuels after the US; in 2040 22% of total liquids consumed are biofuels.
• Oil production increases significantly (70%) reaching almost 5 Mb/d by 2040, which represents 5% of global production.
• Gas production more than doubles to reach 63 Bcm by 2040. However, Brazil remains a net gas importer over the forecast period.
• Net CO₂ emissions grow by 31%, slightly faster than the non-OECD average.