Country insight – Brazil

Projections

• Primary energy grows in all three scenarios in the short term. By 2050 it falls by 2% in Net Zer while it grows by 8% in Accelerated and by 27% in New Momentum. Average growth per year is in the range -0.1%-0.8%.

• The share of oil in total primary energy consumed has been broadly stable around 2019-levels (33%) over the last 35 years. However, in all the scenarios the share of oil declines, to between 6% and 24% by 2050.

• The production of hydrogen for use primarily in industry and heavy-duty transport grows in all scenarios, meeting 1%, 3% and 6% of total final consumption in New Momentum, Accelerated and Net Zero respectively.
  
• Electricity in final consumption increases by 60%-70% by 2050. As a result, the share of electricity in final consumption reaches 27% in New Momentum, and 33% and 44% in Accelerated and Net Zero respectively.

• Renewable power generation grows over three-fold in Accelerated and Net Zero, and more than doubles in New Momentum, driven by onshore wind and solar. Hydropower retains the highest share of electricity generation, at around 40% in all scenarios.

• The use of natural gas in power only grows in New Momentum and declines to 1%- 2% of generation in Accelerated and Net Zero by 2050. 

• Biofuels continue to grow in all scenarios, meeting 9%-10% total final consumption in 2050.
  
• Biomass meets similar shares of total final consumption (around 20%) in all scenarios and out to 2050 with the decrease in traditional biomass in buildings offset by growth in industry.

• Carbon emissions fall by 2050 in all scenarios. In New Momentum emissions fall by 3% in 2050 relative to 2019. In Accelerated and Net Zero, they start to decline earlier and faster, decreasing by 62% and 98%.

• Production of oil and gas increases by an average of 0.1% and 1.3% p.a. to 2050 in New Momentum but declines in Accelerated and Net Zero.