Country insight – Brazil

Projections

• The energy intensity of Brazil’s economy stays relatively constant over the outlook period, with energy consumption growing at 2.0% p.a. compared to GDP at 1.8% p.a.. This contrasts with the world as a whole, where energy intensity falls by a third.
• Energy use in power generation grows by 85%. Among final sectors, energy use in buildings grows the fastest (+85%), followed by non-combusted (+60%), industry (+56%) and transport (+44%).
• The rate of growth in these sectors is less than the previous 25 years (except for non-combusted uses) largely due to slower annual economic growth: 1.8% compared to a historical 2.7%. In the non-combusted sector however, energy demand increases at 2.0% p.a. compared to 1.2% historically.
• In 2016, 42% of the energy consumed in Brazil came from hydro and other renewables (29% hydro and 13% wind, solar and biofuels). This is the largest share of any country or region in the Outlook.
• By 2040 this share increases to 47% due to a doubling in the use of biofuels, a 30% increase in hydro output and substantial increases in wind and solar.
• Brazil is the world’s second largest user of biofuels in 2016 after the US, and retains this position to 2040. By 2040 24% of all liquid fuel consumed in Brazil is expected to come from biofuels, up from 15% in 2016. In the US the shares are 7% and 5% respectively.
• The increase in renewable energy comes at the expense of both coal and oil. Oil’s share of the energy mix reduces from 40% to 31% although demand grows by 19% in absolute terms. Coal’s share reduces from 6% to 3% over the Outlook, and falls from 17 mtoe to 15. Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, with demand doubling, and its share increasing from 11% to 16%
• Brazil continues to expand its oil production increasing output from 2.7 Mb/d to 4.0 Mb/d by 2040, and accounting for just under 4% of world oil supply.