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Country insight – Brazil

Published:
14 March 2022
Strong growth in renewable electricity and bioenergy leads the decarbonisation of Brazil’s energy system. Hydropower retains the highest share of electricity generation in all scenarios

Highlights

-2% to 27%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050

 

44% to 62%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

1.5% to 1.7%

annual growth in electricity consumption in 2019-2050

-3% to -98%

reduction in net CO₂e emissions by 2050 relative to 2019

In all three scenarios Brazil’s primary energy consumption grows to 2030, then falls in Accelerated and Net Zero.
 
Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero.
 
Electricity in final consumption grows by over 60% in all three scenarios.

 

Projections

  • Primary energy grows in all three scenarios in the short term. By 2050 it falls by 2% in Net Zer while it grows by 8% in Accelerated and by 27% in New Momentum. Average growth per year is in the range -0.1%-0.8%.
  • The share of oil in total primary energy consumed has been broadly stable around 2019-levels (33%) over the last 35 years. However, in all the scenarios the share of oil declines, to between 6% and 24% by 2050.
  • The production of hydrogen for use primarily in industry and heavy-duty transport grows in all scenarios, meeting 1%, 3% and 6% of total final consumption in New Momentum, Accelerated and Net Zero respectively.
  • Electricity in final consumption increases by 60%-70% by 2050. As a result, the share of electricity in final consumption reaches 27% in New Momentum, and 33% and 44% in Accelerated and Net Zero respectively.
  • Renewable power generation grows over three-fold in Accelerated and Net Zero, and more than doubles in New Momentum, driven by onshore wind and solar. Hydropower retains the highest share of electricity generation, at around 40% in all scenarios.
  • The use of natural gas in power only grows in New Momentum and declines to 1%- 2% of generation in Accelerated and Net Zero by 2050. 
  • Biofuels continue to grow in all scenarios, meeting 9%-10% total final consumption in 2050.
  • Biomass meets similar shares of total final consumption (around 20%) in all scenarios and out to 2050 with the decrease in traditional biomass in buildings offset by growth in industry.
  • Carbon emissions fall by 2050 in all scenarios. In New Momentum emissions fall by 3% in 2050 relative to 2019. In Accelerated and Net Zero, they start to decline earlier and faster, decreasing by 62% and 98%.
  • Production of oil and gas increases by an average of 0.1% and 1.3% p.a. to 2050 in New Momentum but declines in Accelerated and Net Zero.