We project that Brazil becomes a net energy exporter as increased production of oil, gas, hydro, nuclear and renewables outweigh growth in energy demand
Growth in Brazil’s energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2035
Growth in Brazil’s energy production
- Consumption of all fuels but coal increase over the Outlook: renewables (including biofuels) +157%, hydro +37%, oil +16%, gas +43%, nuclear +149%, and coal -16%.
- The fuel mix continues to evolve as renewables gain market share. The share of oil in the fuel mix drops to 34% in 2035, from 41% today, however oil remains the dominant fuel.
- Natural gas consumption grows by 1.8% p.a., slightly faster than the global average of 1.6% p.a. and oil consumption grows by 0.8% p.a., in line with the global average.
- Renewables consumption (including biofuels) grows by 4.8% p.a. from 2015 to 2035.
- Energy consumed in power generation increases by 2.2% p.a. from 2015 to 2035. Hydro remains the dominant fuel source but its market share drops from 63% in 2015 to 56% in 2035 as the share of renewables doubles over the Outlook.
- By the end of the Outlook wind becomes the second largest input to power generation, overtaking gas.
- Increased production of oil (+70%) and natural gas (+40%) more than offset declines in coal (-22%).
- Liquids production increases by over 2 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach over 5 Mb/d by 2035, the highest level on record.
- With increased production of oil and biofuels, Brazil remains the largest liquids producer in South America.
- Natural gas production increases by 1.7% p.a. over the Outlook, increasing by nearly 1 Bcf/d by 2035.
- Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by just 2% by 2035, compared to a global average decline of 33%. Per capita energy use reaches its highest level on record.