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Country insight – Brazil

Fast growth of renewables and a very high hydro base makes Brazil one of the regions with the lowest carbon energy mix

Highlights

52% to 80%

Combined share of hydro and renewables in 2050

 

60% to 66%

Increase in energy demand between 2018 and 2050

4.3 to 5Mb/d

Peak oil production in Brazil

Under all three scenarios, Brazil’s energy demand increases by around two-thirds
 
In Rapid, renewably sourced energy consumption almost quintuples by 2050 to reach 46% of the energy mix
 
Oil production in Rapid peaks in the late 2020s. In BAU growth continues in the 2030s peaking at 5 Mb/d by the late 30s

 

Projections

  • Brazil’s economy expands at 1.7% p.a. between 2018 – 2050, down from 2.4% in the 1990 – 2018 period and significantly lower than the world GDP growth rate for the outlook (2.6% p.a.).
  • Primary energy consumption in Brazil expands between 60% to 66% up to 2050, with energy use per capita increasing by around 50%.
  • Most of the growth in primary energy demand comes from the Industry sector which expands by 83% in BAU, 101% in Rapid and 111% in Net Zero. Transport is the second source of sectoral energy demand growth.
  • In all three scenarios renewables’ share in the primary energy mix expands rapidly from 15% in 2018 to 32%, 46% and 54% in BAU, Rapid and Net Zero, respectively.
  • Brazil remains one of the largest hydroelectric producers in the world. In 2018 hydro accounted for 28% of the national energy mix. In 2050 it reaches 21% in BAU, 24% in Rapid and 26% in Net Zero
  • Oil loses share in all three scenarios going from 39% in 2018 to 28%, 14% and 7% in BAU, Rapid and Net Zero, respectively.
  • Nuclear is the second fastest growing fuel, increasing by 3.4% p.a., 4% p.a., and 4.8% p.a. in BAU, Rapid and Net Zero, respectively.
  • Oil production expands rapidly during the first half of the outlook, so that the its share of non-OPEC oil supply increases from less than 5% in 2018 to almost 8% in the second half of 2030s in both Rapid and BAU.
  • Biofuels production more than doubles between 2018 and 2035 in Rapid, reaching over 1.3 Mb/d. In BAU, production increases to almost 0.9 Mb/d in the 2040s.
  • Power demand more than doubles in all scenarios by 2050. The share of renewables in power increases from 17% in 2018 to 45% in BAU, 47% in Net Zero and 51% in Rapid.
  • Net CO2 emissions grow by 26% in BAU. Emissions decline by 41% in Rapid and by 92% in Net Zero.
  • Carbon intensity drops by 27% in BAU, 66% in Rapid and 95% in Net Zero between 2018 and 2050.