Share of energy consumption from hydro and other renewable sources in 2040
The energy intensity of Brazil’s economy stays relatively constant over the outlook period, with energy consumption growing at 2.0% p.a. compared to GDP at 1.8% p.a.. This contrasts with the world as a whole, where energy intensity falls by a third.
Energy use in power generation grows by 85%. Among final sectors, energy use in buildings grows the fastest (+85%), followed by non-combusted (+60%), industry (+56%) and transport (+44%).
The rate of growth in these sectors is less than the previous 25 years (except for non-combusted uses) largely due to slower annual economic growth: 1.8% compared to a historical 2.7%. In the non-combusted sector however, energy demand increases at 2.0% p.a. compared to 1.2% historically.
In 2016, 42% of the energy consumed in Brazil came from hydro and other renewables (29% hydro and 13% wind, solar and biofuels). This is the largest share of any country or region in the Outlook.
By 2040 this share increases to 47% due to a doubling in the use of biofuels, a 30% increase in hydro output and substantial increases in wind and solar.
Brazil is the world’s second largest user of biofuels in 2016 after the US, and retains this position to 2040. By 2040 24% of all liquid fuel consumed in Brazil is expected to come from biofuels, up from 15% in 2016. In the US the shares are 7% and 5% respectively.
The increase in renewable energy comes at the expense of both coal and oil. Oil’s share of the energy mix reduces from 40% to 31% although demand grows by 19% in absolute terms. Coal’s share reduces from 6% to 3% over the Outlook, and falls from 17 mtoe to 15. Gas is the fastest growing fossil fuel, with demand doubling, and its share increasing from 11% to 16%
Brazil continues to expand its oil production increasing output from 2.7 Mb/d to 4.0 Mb/d by 2040, and accounting for just under 4% of world oil supply.