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Country insight – India

We project that India’s energy consumption grows the fastest among all major economies by 2040 with coal contributing most to meeting this demand followed by renewables

Highlights

165% increase

Growth in India’s energy consumption

43%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

184% increase

Growth in India’s energy production

Projections

  • India's demand growth of 165%, nearly three times the overall non-OECD growth of 61%, also outpaces each of the BRIC countries: China (+41%), Brazil (+60%), and Russia (+6%).
  • India's share of global demand rises to 11% in 2040 from 5% in 2016, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries.
  • Demand for coal sees the biggest growth, expanding by 132% followed by renewables (+1409%), nuclear (+412%), hydro (+80%), gas (+185%) and oil (+129%).
  • India's energy mix evolves very slowly with fossil fuels meeting 82% of demand in 2040, down from 93% in 2016.
  • The share of coal in the energy mix falls from 57% in 2016 to 50% by 2040, while the share of renewables rises from 2% to 13%.
  • Power consumption more than trebles (+241%) and while coal remains the dominant fuel source, its share of generation drops from 77% in 2016 to 64% in 2040 as renewables rise from 5% to 23%.
  • Energy in transport grows by 4.4% per year and oil remains the dominant fuel source with a 96% market share in 2040.
  • Industry’s (combusted and non-combusted) share of energy consumed remains around 60% during the forecast.
  • Energy production as a share of consumption increases from 56% in 2016 to 60% by 2040 while imports rise by 141%.
  • A decline in oil (-24%) production is offset by increases in coal (+154%), gas (+99%), and non-fossil fuels by 544%.
  • Coal remains the dominant fuel produced in India with a 63% share of total production in 2040. Renewables overtake gas and then oil by 2020 as the second largest source of energy production.
  • Oil imports will rise by 175% and account for 65% of the increase in energy imports, followed by gas (+291%) and coal (+79%).
  • By 2040, India's energy intensity of GDP is 37% lower than in 2016 while carbon intensity of energy use is down by 13%.