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Country insight – India

1 February 2023
Under all scenarios, primary energy grows strongly, led by renewables and, to a lesser extent, natural gas and nuclear. This growth is underpinned by increasing population, industrialization and prosperity


Over 100%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 in all scenarios


6% to 33%

share of coal in primary energy in 2050


33% to 68%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050


-76% to +85%

net change in CO2e emissions by 2050


Under all three scenarios, India’s primary energy consumption more than doubles by 2050

Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero

Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that grows (in absolute terms) throughout to 2050 in all scenarios


  • India’s economy grows at a rate of 4.7% a year in 2019-2050, down from 7.4% a year over the past 20 years.
  • Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, more than doubling between 2019-2050. Average growth per year is between 2.4% and 2.6%. As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 14% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across all scenarios, up from around 7% in 2019.
  • The share of coal in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (45%) over the past 40 years. However, coal’s share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 33% by 2050.
  • India’s natural gas production grows in all scenarios, up to 59-132 Bcm in 2050 (from 27 Bcm in 2019).
  • The share of natural gas in total primary energy grows in all scenarios, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 7-11% in 2050, supported by industry and heavy road transport demand.
  • Renewable energy grows strongly in all scenarios, at an average of 4-6% a year. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero, and the largest together with coal in New Momentum
  • Electricity generation in 2050 is around four times of that in 2019 in New Momentum and Accelerated, and five times in Net Zero, with solar and wind power accounting for 57% to 95% of that growth.
  • Solar and wind installed capacities in 2050 reach 1.3-2.2 TW and 0.3-1.2TW, respectively, depending on the scenarios.
  • Hydrogen demand grows by a factor of four in New Momentum up to a twelvefold increase in Net Zero. In 2050 green hydrogen represents 47% of total production in New Momentum and 80% in Net Zero.
  • Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In New Momentum, emissions increase by around 85% in 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 30% and 77%, respectively.