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Country insight – India

Under all scenarios, there is a strong growth in primary energy lead by renewable energy and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. This growth is underpinned by increased population and prosperity

Highlights

>100% to 14%

Growth in primary energy in 2018-2050 under all scenarios

5% to 40%

Share of coal in primary energy in 2050

22% to 69%

Share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

Under all three scenarios, India’s primary energy consumption more than doubles by 2050
 
Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in 2050

Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that shows growth in levels in all the scenarios

Projections

  • Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, more-than doubling the energy consumed between 2018-2050. Average growth per year is in the band 2.5% – 3.0%. 
  • As result of this strong growth, India accounts for 35% of the increase in global primary energy consumption in 2018-2050 in the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario. In Rapid and Net Zero, India absorbs 85% and 89% of the global increase in primary energy consumption over the Outlook, respectively. 
  • The share of coal in total primary energy consumed has been broadly stable around 2018-levels (56%) over the past 40 years. However, in all the scenarios coal’s share declines, between 5% and 40% by 2050.
  • Renewable energy growth is intense in the three scenarios with average growth per year in the band 9% – 13%. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Rapid and Net Zero, and the second largest under BAU after coal. Renewable energy represents between 22% and 69% of total primary energy in 2050. 
  • Remarkably, the share of natural gas in total primary energy grows in all scenarios, increasing from 6% in 2018 to 10% – 16% in 2050.
  • There is also a significant process of electrification, underpinned by substantial build-out of new generating capacity. Power demand increases threefold in all scenarios by 2050. As a result of this strong growth, this sector absorbs over 50% of total primary energy in 2050 under BAU and around three-quarters in Rapid and Net Zero.
  • Carbon emissions vary dramatically by scenario. In BAU emissions increase by around 90% in 2050. In Rapid and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 53% and 99%, respectively.