Country insight – India

We project that India’s energy consumption grows the fastest among all major economies by 2040 with coal contributing most to meeting this demand followed by renewables

Growth in India’s energy consumption

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

Growth in India’s energy production

  • India's demand growth of 165%, nearly three times the overall non-OECD growth of 61%, also outpaces each of the BRIC countries: China (+41%), Brazil (+60%), and Russia (+6%).
  • India's share of global demand rises to 11% in 2040 from 5% in 2016, accounting for the second largest share of the BRIC countries.
  • Demand for coal sees the biggest growth, expanding by 132% followed by renewables (+1409%), nuclear (+412%), hydro (+80%), gas (+185%) and oil (+129%).
  • India's energy mix evolves very slowly with fossil fuels meeting 82% of demand in 2040, down from 93% in 2016.
  • The share of coal in the energy mix falls from 57% in 2016 to 50% by 2040, while the share of renewables rises from 2% to 13%.
  • Power consumption more than trebles (+241%) and while coal remains the dominant fuel source, its share of generation drops from 77% in 2016 to 64% in 2040 as renewables rise from 5% to 23%.
  • Energy in transport grows by 4.4% per year and oil remains the dominant fuel source with a 96% market share in 2040.
  • Industry’s (combusted and non-combusted) share of energy consumed remains around 60% during the forecast.
  • Energy production as a share of consumption increases from 56% in 2016 to 60% by 2040 while imports rise by 141%.
  • A decline in oil (-24%) production is offset by increases in coal (+154%), gas (+99%), and non-fossil fuels by 544%.
  • Coal remains the dominant fuel produced in India with a 63% share of total production in 2040. Renewables overtake gas and then oil by 2020 as the second largest source of energy production.
  • Oil imports will rise by 175% and account for 65% of the increase in energy imports, followed by gas (+291%) and coal (+79%).
  • By 2040, India's energy intensity of GDP is 37% lower than in 2016 while carbon intensity of energy use is down by 13%.

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