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Country insight – India

Published:
14 March 2022
Under all scenarios, there is a strong growth in primary energy led by renewables and, to a lesser extent, natural gas. This growth is underpinned by increasing population, industrialization and prosperity

Highlights

Over 100%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 in all scenarios

6% to 34%

share of coal in primary energy in 2050

31% to 66%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

-71% to +96%

variation in CO₂ emissions by 2050 vs 2019 level

Under all three scenarios, India’s primary energy consumption more than doubles by 2050

Renewable energy grows strongly in all the scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero 

Natural gas is the only fossil fuel that shows growth in levels throughout to 2050 in all scenarios

Projections

  • Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, more than doubling between 2019-2050. Average growth per year is between 2.5%-2.7%.
  • As result of this strong growth, India accounts for around 13%-14% of the global primary energy consumption in 2050 across all scenarios, up from around 7% in 2019.
  • The share of coal in total primary energy has been broadly stable around 2019 levels (45%) over the past 40 years. However, coal’s share declines in all scenarios, reaching between 6% and 34% by 2050.
  • Renewable energy growth is strong in the three scenarios, averaging between 4%-6% p.a. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero, and the second largest in New Momentum (after coal). Renewable energy represents between 31% and 66% of total primary energy in 2050.
  • The share of natural gas in total primary energy grows in all scenarios, increasing from 5% in 2019 to 12% in 2050 in New Momentum, supported by coal-to-gas switching in power, industry and heavy road transport demand. In Accelerated and Net Zero the gas share in primary energy is between 8% and 10%.
  • There is also a significant process of electrification. Power generation more than triples in all scenarios by 2050, with solar and wind power accounting for 55% to 95% of that growth.
  • Solar and wind installed capacity by 2050 reaches 1.2-2.1 TW and 0.2-1.1TW, respectively. 
  • Carbon emissions vary significantly by scenario. In New Momentum emissions increase by around 96% in 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 26% and 71%, respectively.