growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios
5% to 20%
share of coal in primary energy in 2050
38% to 62%
share of renewables in primary energy in 2050
99% to 55%
net change in CO2 emissions by 2050
Renewables are the largest source of energy in all scenarios by 2050, reaching a 60% share in Accelerated and Net Zero
Coal consumption decreases sharply, with its share in primary energy falling to between 5% and 20%by 2050
Carbon emissions peak by 2030 and fall by over 50% in all scenarios by 2050
By 2050, primary energy consumption increases by 9% in New Momentum, it stays relatively flat in Accelerated and it modestly declines in Net Zero. China accounts for over 20% of the world’s primary energy in all scenarios.
Renewables (inc. biofuels) are China’s largest source of primary energy by 2050, reaching around a 40% share in New Momentum and around a 60% share in Accelerated and Net Zero.
Nuclear energy increases at least four-fold by 2050, from ~3 EJ today to between 12 and 15 EJ in 2050, driven by investment in new nuclear power plants.
The share of wind and solar in total electricity generation grows from less than 10% today to over 50% in New Momentum and over 65% in Accelerated and Net Zero.
The growth in low-carbon energy sources displaces the use of coal, whose share in primary energy drops from 56% today to 20% in New Momentum and to around 5% in Accelerated and Net Zero.
Oil consumption also declines in all scenarios by 2050, falling by around 30% in New Momentum, 60% in Accelerated and over 75% in Net Zero relative to 2019 levels.
Over the rest of decade natural gas consumption grows in all scenarios, driven by continued coal-to-gas switching. Post-2030, natural gas demand almost doubles by 2050 relative to 2019 in New Momentum. In contrast, demand by 2050 falls by over 10% in Accelerated and by over 40% in Net Zero relative to 2019.
Carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) plays a key role in decarbonizing China’s energy system, with over 1 Gt of CO2 captured in 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero.
Carbon emissions peak by 2030 and fall by over 50% in all scenarios by 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, carbon emissions fall by 92% and 99% relative to 2019 levels respectively, reaching less than 1 Gt of CO2. In New Momentum, emissions in 2050 are around 5Gt of CO2 compared to around 12 Gt in 2019.