Country insight – China
China’s energy demand growth slows to 1.1% p.a. through the Outlook, less than one fifth of its pace in the last 22 years (5.9% p.a.)
Highlights
Annual average growth in China’s energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2040
Growth in China’s energy production
Despite slowing energy demand growth, China remains the world’s largest energy consumer, accounting for 22% of world energy consumption in 2040.
China’s energy intensity declines by 3.4% p.a. over the Outlook, slightly faster than the average decline of 3.0% p.a. between 1995 and 2017.
China’s energy mix continues to evolve, with coal’s share declining to 35% in 2040, from 60% in 2017.
Despite slowing energy demand growth, China remains the world’s largest energy consumer, accounting for 22% of world energy consumption in 2040.
China’s energy intensity declines by 3.4% p.a. over the Outlook, slightly faster than the average decline of 3.0% p.a. between 1995 and 2017.
China’s energy mix continues to evolve, with coal’s share declining to 35% in 2040, from 60% in 2017.
Projections
- Energy consumption and production rise by 28% and 29%, respectively, between 2017 and 2040, slightly slower than the global increases of 32% for both.
- China’s share in global energy demand drops from 23% in 2017 to 22% in 2040, while it contributes 20% of the world’s net increase.
- China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 60% in 2017 to 35% in 2040 and natural gas doubling to 14%; renewables’ share rises from 3% in 2017 to 18% in 2040.
- Demand for almost all fuels expands: oil (+19%) and gas (+166%); renewables in power (+553%), nuclear (+405%) and hydro (+31%). Coal demand declines (-25%).
- Coal demand peaked in 2013. However, China remains the world’s largest consumer of coal throughout the outlook, accounting for 39% of global coal demand in 2040.
- Nuclear increases by 7.3% p.a. from 2017 to 2040, and China accounts for 37% of global nuclear power generation in 2040.
- Renewables expand rapidly, rising by 8.5% p.a. to 2040, and accounting for 26% of global renewables by then.
- Energy production as a share of energy consumption drops to 75% in 2024 and then recovers to 80% by 2040.
- China’s gas production grows by 218 Bcm (+146%) from 2017 to 2040.
- Oil import dependence rises from 67% in 2017 to 76% in 2040. Gas import dependence rises from 38% in 2017 to 43% in 2040.
- With the economy increasing by 181% from 2017 to 2040, China’s energy intensity declines by 54%.
- Carbon emissions peak in 2022.