Country insight – China

Projections

• China's economy grows at 3.5% p.a. between 2018 and 2050, down from 9.6% p.a. between 1990 and 2018. 

• Primary energy consumption in China increases slightly, in all three scenarios. With the economy size nearly tripling from 2018 to 2050, China’s energy intensity declines by over 60% in all scenarios.

• China’s share in global energy demand drops from 24% in 2018 to 23% in Rapid, 22% in Net Zero and 21% in BAU by 2050. Nonetheless, China remains the world’s largest consumer.

• Renewables expand rapidly, with an annual growth rate >5.5% p.a. in all scenarios. Renewables’ share of the energy mix increases sharply, reaching 48%, 55% and 23% in Rapid, Net Zero and BAU, respectively.
  
• Coal’s share of the China power generation mix declines sharply under all scenarios, falling to 4% in Rapid, 1% in Net Zero and 31% in 2050 in BAU.

• Production of coal declines in China, dropping by nearly 90% in Rapid, and 57% under BAU.

• Nuclear power grows quickly in all scenarios, increasing its share of primary energy demand from 2% in 2018, to 11%, 12% or 9% in Rapid, Net Zero and BAU scenarios respectively.
  
• Production of natural gas greatly increases in China, by 76% in Rapid and 114% in BAU scenario. Conversely, production of oil declines by 73% in Rapid and 21% in BAU.

• Under all three scenarios liquids demand in China peaks in the next 5 years, driven by increased efficiency and fuel substitution in industry and mobility.

• Net CO₂ emissions from energy use drop by 99% in the Net Zero scenario, 84% under Rapid and 35% under BAU.