Country insight – China
We project that China’s energy demand growth slows to 1.5% p.a. through the Outlook, less than one third of its pace in the past 20 years (6.3% p.a.)
Highlights
Growth in China energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2040
Growth in China energy production
Projections
- Energy production rises by 45% while consumption grows by 41% between 2016 and 2040, much faster than the global increases of 34% and 35% respectively.
- China’s share in global energy demand rises from 23% in 2016 to 24% in 2040, while its growth contributes 27% to the world’s net increase.
- China’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal’s dominance declining from 62% in 2016 to 36% in 2040 and natural gas nearly doubling to 13%; renewables’ share rises from 3% in 2016 to 18% in 2040.
- Among fossil fuels demand expands for oil (+28%) and gas (+194%) while coal demand declines slightly (-18%). Renewables in power (+789%), nuclear (+574%) and hydro (+32%) also grow quickly.
- Coal demand peaked in 2013. However, China remains the world’s largest consumer of coal throughout the Outlook, accounting for 41% of global coal demand in 2040.
- Energy production as a share of energy consumption increases from 80% in 2016 to 82% by 2040.
- Nuclear increases by 8% p.a. from 2016 to 2040, and China accounts for 36% of global nuclear generation in 2040.
- By 2040 China is the second largest shale gas producer, after the US, growing to 22 Bcf/d by 2040.
- Oil import dependence rises from 63% in 2016 to 72% in 2040. Gas dependence rises from 34% to 43% in 2040.
- With the economy increasing by 115% from 2016 to 2040, China’s energy intensity declines by 34%.
- Carbon emissions from energy use peak in 2026.
- Renewables expand rapidly, rising by 9.5% p.a. to 2040, and accounting for 31% of global renewables by then.