Country insight – China

Projections

• By 2050, primary energy consumption increases by 9% in New Momentum, it stays relatively flat in Accelerated and it modestly declines in Net Zero. China accounts for over 20% of the world’s primary energy in all scenarios.
• Renewables (inc. biofuels) are China’s largest source of primary energy by 2050, reaching around a 40% share in New Momentum and around a 60% share in Accelerated and Net Zero.
• Nuclear energy increases at least four-fold by 2050, from ~3 EJ today to between 12 and 15 EJ in 2050, driven by investment in new nuclear power plants.
• The share of wind and solar in total electricity generation grows from less than 10% today to over 50% in New Momentum and over 65% in Accelerated and Net Zero.
• The growth in low-carbon energy sources displaces the use of coal, whose share in primary energy drops from 56% today to 20% in New Momentum and to around 5% in Accelerated and Net Zero.
• Oil consumption also declines in all scenarios by 2050, falling by around 30% in New Momentum, 60% in Accelerated and over 75% in Net Zero relative to 2019 levels.
• Over the rest of decade natural gas consumption grows in all scenarios, driven by continued coal-to-gas switching. Post-2030, natural gas demand almost doubles by 2050 relative to 2019 in New Momentum. In contrast, demand by 2050 falls by over 10% in Accelerated and by over 40% in Net Zero relative to 2019.
• Carbon capture, use and storage (CCUS) plays a key role in decarbonizing China’s energy system, with over 1 Gt of CO₂ captured in 2050 in Accelerated and Net Zero.
• Carbon emissions peak by 2030 and fall by over 50% in all scenarios by 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, carbon emissions fall by 92% and 99% relative to 2019 levels respectively, reaching less than 1 Gt of CO₂. In New Momentum, emissions in 2050 are around 5Gt of CO₂ compared to around 12 Gt in 2019.