Country insight – US

Projections

• The US economy grows at a rate of 1.7% ‎per annum 2018-2050, down from ‎‎2.5% from 1990-2018‎. Primary energy consumption in the US ‎declines by more than a quarter in ‎Rapid and Net Zero, primarily ‎reflecting efficiency measures in ‎buildings and electrification in ‎transport.

• The EV share of the US passenger ‎vehicle fleet reaches 93%, 96%, and ‎‎31% by 2050 in Rapid, Net Zero, and ‎BAU respectively.

• Oil demand plateaus before 2025 in all ‎scenarios, from a combination of ‎COVID-related behavioural change, ‎efficiency and electrification.‎

• Renewables reach almost 60% of the ‎power mix in BAU, while they account ‎for 63% in Rapid and 69% in Net ‎Zero.‎
  
• Coal’s share of the US power generation mix declines sharply, falling from 33% to 0% in Rapid and Net ‎Zero and just 3% in 2050 in BAU.‎

• Nuclear’s share in power falls from 20% to 16% in Rapid and to 2% in BAU. It remains at 20% in Net ‎Zero.‎

• Gas’ share in primary energy falls slightly from 30% to 25% in Rapid, while it halves in Net Zero and ‎grows to 36% in BAU. US LNG exports increase almost tenfold by 2050 in BAU and Rapid, and its ‎share of global LNG exports increases from 10% to around 25%, respectively.

• These effects reduce net CO₂ emissions by 5.3% p.a. between 2018-50 in Rapid (to 1 GtCO₂). Emissions ‎fall by 11% p.a. to reach 0.1 GtCO₂ by 2050 in Net Zero.‎
  
• In BAU the 1.3% yearly decline is on par with the trend of the last decade (1.1%). 

• 15% (or 5 GtCO₂₎ of the decline to achieve the Net Zero scenario occurs in the US, second only to China.‎

• CCS technologies abate 10% of US carbon emissions reductions, falling by 450-590 Mt in Rapid and Net ‎Zero.

• Hydrogen reaches 14% of primary energy in Rapid, almost 30% in Net Zero, but less than 1% in BAU. A ‎quarter of the hydrogen consumed comes from natural gas in Rapid. The US accounts for around 15% ‎of global hydrogen demand, behind China.