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Country insight – US

We project that the US becomes energy self-sufficient in the early 2020s and maintains its position as the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas


1% increase

Growth in US energy consumption


Share of global energy consumption in 2040

39% increase

Growth in US energy production


  • Energy consumption is essentially flat (+1% to 2040). Energy use in power generation grows by 10%. Among final sectors, growth in buildings (+5%) and non-combusted uses (+35%) is offset by declines in transport (-10%).
  • Energy consumed in power generation increases by 0.4% p.a. from 2016-40, half the growth rate of 1990-2016.
  • Improvements in vehicle efficiency cause energy use in transport to fall by 0.4% p.a., after growing by 1.0% p.a. over 1990-2016.
  • By fuel, growth in renewables including biofuels (+220%) and natural gas (+30%) is offset by declines in coal (-69%), oil (-18%) and nuclear power (-28%).
  • Natural gas becomes the leading fuel, accounting for 40% of US energy consumption, up from 32% today. Renewables (17% in 2040) also gain market share while coal and oil lose significant share (accounting for 5% and 30% of energy use, respectively, in 2040).
  • Renewables (including biofuels) see the largest growth increment of any fuel growing by 5% p.a..
  • Renewables surpass coal as the second-largest source of power generation (by fuel input) around 2030.
  • Domestic energy production increases by 39%; growth in natural gas (+65%), oil (+55%) and renewables (+220%) more than offset declines in coal (-48%) and nuclear power (-28%).
  • The US remains the largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas. Oil production increases by 7 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach 21 Mb/d by 2040.
  • Natural gas production increases by 46 Bcf/d to 118 Bcf/d.
  • Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 35% 2016-40, similar to the decline seen over 1990-2016 (-38%) and to the global decline to 2040 (-37%).
  • Flat energy consumption combined with a shift in the fuel mix (more renewables and gas; less coal and oil) drives a decline in CO2 emissions from energy use of 21% by 2040.