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Country insight – US

The US becomes energy self-sufficient by 2020 and maintains its position as the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas

Highlights

1% decrease

Decline in US energy consumption, 2017-40

12%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

29% increase

Growth in US energy production, 2017-40


The share of renewables in the US fuel mix grows from 6% today to 18% by 2040.
 
Natural gas demand surpasses oil in the early-2030s; renewables surpass coal in the late 2020s.
 
US energy production as a share of consumption is projected to rise from 89% in 2017 to 115% by 2040.

 

Projections

  • Energy consumption is essentially flat (-1% to 2040). Energy use in power generation grows by 13%. Among final sectors, growth in buildings (+6%), non-combusted uses (+28%), and industry (+1%) offsets a fall in transport (-15%).
  • Energy consumed in power generation increases by 0.5% p.a. from 2017-40, similar to the growth rate of 1995-2017.
  • Improvements in vehicle efficiency cause energy use in transport to fall by 0.7% p.a., after growing by 0.8% p.a. over 1995-2017.
  • By fuel, growth in consumption of renewables (+199%) and natural gas (+29%) is offset by declines in coal (-58%), oil (-18%) and nuclear power (-46%).
  • Natural gas becomes the leading fuel, accounting for 37% of US energy consumption, up from 28% today. Renewables (18% in 2040) also gain market share while coal and oil lose significant share (accounting for 6% and 31% of energy use, respectively, in 2040).
  • Renewables (including biofuels) see the largest growth increment of any fuel growing by 4.9% p.a..
  • Renewables surpass coal as the 2nd-largest source of power generation (by fuel input) in the late 2020s and nearly equal natural gas by 2040.
  • Domestic energy production increases by 29%; growth in natural gas (+54%), renewables (+200%) and oil (+35%) outpaces declines in coal (-37%) and nuclear power (-46%).
  • The US remains the largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas. Oil production increases by 5 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach 19 Mb/d by 2040; the US becomes a net oil exporter in the early 2020s.
  • Natural gas output rises by nearly 400 Bcm to over 1130 Bcm, and LNG exports rise to more than 175 Bcm.
  • Energy intensity (the amount of energy per unit of GDP) declines by 36% 2017-40, in line with the decline from 1995-2017 and with the global decline to 2040.
  • Flat energy consumption and the shift in the fuel mix drives a decline in CO2 emissions from energy use (-20%) by 2040.