Country insight – US
The rapid increase in renewables generation sharply reduces coal’s share in the US power mix
Highlights
-4% to -30%
Decline in primary energy 2020-2050
15%
Share of global hydrogen consumption in 2050
56% to 69%
Share of renewables in power generation by 2050
Under Business-as-usual (BAU) oil demand in the US peaked in 2019, and under Net Zero it drops over 80% by 2050
Efficiency plays a key role in the US’s decarbonization, with primary energy declining 30% over the outlook under Rapid
The US becomes a major producer and consumer of hydrogen under Rapid and Net Zero
Spencer Dale explores the forces shaping the global energy transition out to 2050, with a focus on the US. Presented by CSIS Energy on 21 September
Projections
- The US economy grows at a rate of 1.7% per annum 2018-2050, down from 2.5% from 1990-2018. Primary energy consumption in the US declines by more than a quarter in Rapid and Net Zero, primarily reflecting efficiency measures in buildings and electrification in transport.
- The EV share of the US passenger vehicle fleet reaches 93%, 96%, and 31% by 2050 in Rapid, Net Zero, and BAU respectively.
- Oil demand plateaus before 2025 in all scenarios, from a combination of COVID-related behavioural change, efficiency and electrification.
- Renewables reach almost 60% of the power mix in BAU, while they account for 63% in Rapid and 69% in Net Zero.
- Coal’s share of the US power generation mix declines sharply, falling from 33% to 0% in Rapid and Net Zero and just 3% in 2050 in BAU.
- Nuclear’s share in power falls from 20% to 16% in Rapid and to 2% in BAU. It remains at 20% in Net Zero.
- Gas’ share in primary energy falls slightly from 30% to 25% in Rapid, while it halves in Net Zero and grows to 36% in BAU. US LNG exports increase almost tenfold by 2050 in BAU and Rapid, and its share of global LNG exports increases from 10% to around 25%, respectively.
- These effects reduce net CO2 emissions by 5.3% p.a. between 2018-50 in Rapid (to 1 GtCO2). Emissions fall by 11% p.a. to reach 0.1 GtCO2 by 2050 in Net Zero.
- In BAU the 1.3% yearly decline is on par with the trend of the last decade (1.1%).
- 15% (or 5 GtCO2) of the decline to achieve the Net Zero scenario occurs in the US, second only to China.
- CCS technologies abate 10% of US carbon emissions reductions, falling by 450-590 Mt in Rapid and Net Zero.
- Hydrogen reaches 14% of primary energy in Rapid, almost 30% in Net Zero, but less than 1% in BAU. A quarter of the hydrogen consumed comes from natural gas in Rapid. The US accounts for around 15% of global hydrogen demand, behind China.