Country insight – US

Projections

• Primary energy grows in all three scenarios in the short term but by 2050 it falls across all scenarios by 14%-27%.

• Oil demand rises in the short term from almost 20 Mb/d in 2019 but falls to a range of 3-12 Mb/d by 2050. Biofuels increases its share in liquids demand from 5% in 2019 to over 30% by 2050 in Net Zero.

• Reductions in road transport and the power sector decrease US emissions by 28% and 43% by 2030 vs. 2005 in New Momentum and Accelerated, falling short of the US’ NDC targets of a 50%-52% reduction. By 2050, net emissions fall below 0 in Net Zero and fall by 90% from 2019 levels in Accelerated and by 50% in New Momentum.
  
• The 5.7 Gt decline in net CO₂e emissions in Net Zero accounts for 15% of global reductions, which is the second largest by any country.

• Electricity demand increases from 21% of final consumption to reach 32% in New Momentum, and 48% and 57% in Accelerated and Net Zero, respectively.

• The share of wind and solar in total generation grows strongly in all scenarios from 9% in 2019 to 52%-70%. 

• Gas accounts for a third of US primary energy today and stays stable in New Momentum but falls to 19% and 10% in Accelerated and Net Zero, respectively, by 2050. Gas is displaced by electricity in the residential sector, and renewables take a more prominent role in the power sector.
  
• The US remains a net oil and gas exporter, albeit more so in New Momentum and Accelerated. Oil supply peaks at around 20 Mb/d between 2025-30 in all scenarios, and the US share of global LNG trade doubles from around 10% in 2019 to over 20% by 2050.

• Hydrogen supply grows from around 8.8 Mt today to a range of 15-57 Mt by 2050. In the Net Zero scenario, US hydrogen accounts for 13% of global supply. CCUS grows strongly across all scenarios and reaches 0.7-0.8 Gt in Accelerated and Net Zero.