We project that the US becomes energy self-sufficient in the early 2020s and maintains its position as the world’s largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas
Growth in US energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2040
Growth in US energy production
- Energy consumption is essentially flat (+1% to 2040). Energy use in power generation grows by 10%. Among final sectors, growth in buildings (+5%) and non-combusted uses (+35%) is offset by declines in transport (-10%).
- Energy consumed in power generation increases by 0.4% p.a. from 2016-40, half the growth rate of 1990-2016.
- Improvements in vehicle efficiency cause energy use in transport to fall by 0.4% p.a., after growing by 1.0% p.a. over 1990-2016.
- By fuel, growth in renewables including biofuels (+220%) and natural gas (+30%) is offset by declines in coal (-69%), oil (-18%) and nuclear power (-28%).
- Natural gas becomes the leading fuel, accounting for 40% of US energy consumption, up from 32% today. Renewables (17% in 2040) also gain market share while coal and oil lose significant share (accounting for 5% and 30% of energy use, respectively, in 2040).
- Renewables (including biofuels) see the largest growth increment of any fuel growing by 5% p.a..
- Renewables surpass coal as the second-largest source of power generation (by fuel input) around 2030.
- Domestic energy production increases by 39%; growth in natural gas (+65%), oil (+55%) and renewables (+220%) more than offset declines in coal (-48%) and nuclear power (-28%).
- The US remains the largest producer of liquid fuels and natural gas. Oil production increases by 7 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach 21 Mb/d by 2040.
- Natural gas production increases by 46 Bcf/d to 118 Bcf/d.
- Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 35% 2016-40, similar to the decline seen over 1990-2016 (-38%) and to the global decline to 2040 (-37%).
- Flat energy consumption combined with a shift in the fuel mix (more renewables and gas; less coal and oil) drives a decline in CO2 emissions from energy use of 21% by 2040.