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The war in Ukraine has accelerated the decarbonization of the energy system, with carbon emissions in New Momentum declining by over 70% while Net Zero achieves negative emissions by 2050
decline in primary energy in 2019-2050 in all scenarios
59% to 78%
share of renewables in primary energy in 2050
41% to 46%
growth in electricity generation in 2019-2050
-0.1% to 0.8 GtCO2e
level of carbon emissions by 2050
Renewables are the only source of energy that grows across all scenarios, multiplying by a factor of three in 2019-2050
Total final consumption of energy declines between a third and a half due to a significant increase in energy efficiency
Green hydrogen production boosts and around 20-30% of total renewable installed capacity is devoted to its production
Projections
Total final consumption declines between 36% and 53% in 2019-2050. Hydrogen is the only energy source that grows strongly, representing between 5% and 10% of total final demand in 2050. Electricity generation also grows but moderately, around 1.2% per year in 2019-2050.
In this context, primary energy also decreases in all three scenarios, showing. Average decline per year in 2019-2050 is between 0.8% and 1.4%.
Primary energy from renewables grows strongly in all scenarios, boosted by policies designed to reduce emissions and to increase energy security. In 2019-2050 average growth is between 3.2% and 3.6%.
Demand of hydrogen threefold in New Momentum, sixfold in Accelerated, and eightfold in Net Zero. This strong growth implies that between 18% to 30% of total renewable installed capacity is devoted to the production of green hydrogen.
Fossil fuels demand declines strongly in 2019-2050. Coal, natural gas, and coal fall over 85% in Accelerated and Net Zero. In New Momentum natural gas is more resilient declining by 45%, while oil and coal decrease above 70% in 2019-2050.
The EU is deeply decarbonized in all scenarios thanks to a fall in total final consumption, accelerated growth in renewables, mild growth of electricity generation and strong growth of low-carbon hydrogen demand.
In the New Momentum scenario emissions decline over 70%, achieving a level of 0.8 GtCO2 in 2050 from 3 GtCO2 in 2019. In the Accelerated scenario, the level of emissions is around 0.1 GtCO2 and negative in Net Zero. All the scenarios have some CCUS (carbon capture, usage and storage) used in hard-to-abate sectors.