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Regional insight – EU

We project that the EU’s energy demand will decline by 11% through the outlook; this contrasts with the past 20 years through which demand has been broadly flat

Highlights

11% decrease

Growth in EU energy consumption

8%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

5% decrease

Decline in EU energy production

Projections

  • Energy consumption declines by 11% while production declines by 5% between 2016 and 2040. The EU is only region to see both a decline in consumption and production.
  • The power sector will become increasingly important as it accounts for 50% of energy consumption by 2040.
  • The EU’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal and oil dropping from a combined share of 51% in 2016 to 32% by 2040. The share of natural gas increases from 24% to 27%.
  • The decline in demand for fossil fuels is offset by a rise in renewables which increases their share from 9% in 2016 to 27% by 2040 and hydro from 5% to 6%.
  • The growth in renewables is driven by wind (4.8% p.a.) and solar (4.9% p.a.). By 2040, the EU will meet 15% of its energy demand by wind, with solar and biomass accounting for 5% each. Biofuels will account for less than 1% of demand.
  • The sectorial mix of energy demand changes very little with declines in all end sectors: transport (-0.8% p.a.), industry (-0.7% p.a.), non-combusted industry (-0.9% p.a.) and buildings (-0.1% p.a.).
  • Nuclear decreases by -1.5% p.a. from 2016 to 2040. The EU’s share of global nuclear generation will halve to less than 15% by 2040.
  • Oil and gas production in the EU will fall by over 60% by 2040. In 2040 the EU will produce less than 1 Mb/d.
  • Oil import dependence rises from 85% in 2016 to 92% in 2040. Gas dependence will rise from 72% to 89%. Oil imports will fall to 7 Mb/d, while gas imports will rise to 37 Bcf/d by 2040.
  • Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 34% 2016-40.
  • Carbon emissions will continue to fall, with emissions in 2040 at 50% of the 1990 levels. The EU will see largest decline across any region.