We project that the EU’s energy demand will decline by 11% through the outlook; this contrasts with the past 20 years through which demand has been broadly flat
Growth in EU energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2040
Decline in EU energy production
- Energy consumption declines by 11% while production declines by 5% between 2016 and 2040. The EU is only region to see both a decline in consumption and production.
- The power sector will become increasingly important as it accounts for 50% of energy consumption by 2040.
- The EU’s energy mix continues to evolve with coal and oil dropping from a combined share of 51% in 2016 to 32% by 2040. The share of natural gas increases from 24% to 27%.
- The decline in demand for fossil fuels is offset by a rise in renewables which increases their share from 9% in 2016 to 27% by 2040 and hydro from 5% to 6%.
- The growth in renewables is driven by wind (4.8% p.a.) and solar (4.9% p.a.). By 2040, the EU will meet 15% of its energy demand by wind, with solar and biomass accounting for 5% each. Biofuels will account for less than 1% of demand.
- The sectorial mix of energy demand changes very little with declines in all end sectors: transport (-0.8% p.a.), industry (-0.7% p.a.), non-combusted industry (-0.9% p.a.) and buildings (-0.1% p.a.).
- Nuclear decreases by -1.5% p.a. from 2016 to 2040. The EU’s share of global nuclear generation will halve to less than 15% by 2040.
- Oil and gas production in the EU will fall by over 60% by 2040. In 2040 the EU will produce less than 1 Mb/d.
- Oil import dependence rises from 85% in 2016 to 92% in 2040. Gas dependence will rise from 72% to 89%. Oil imports will fall to 7 Mb/d, while gas imports will rise to 37 Bcf/d by 2040.
- Energy intensity (the amount of energy required per unit of GDP) declines by 34% 2016-40.
- Carbon emissions will continue to fall, with emissions in 2040 at 50% of the 1990 levels. The EU will see largest decline across any region.