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Emerging economies – excluding China

10 July 2024
Energy demand growth depends on the pace of the energy transition, with demand growing to 2050 in Current Trajectory but declining in Net Zero. Under both scenarios, the energy system electrifies


23% to 56%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050


33% to 75%

share of solar and wind in electricity generation by 2050


2.4x to 3.5x

growth in electricity generation to 2050


+20% to -85%

net change in CO2e emissions between 2022 and 2050


By 2050, electricity accounts for about 25% of energy demand in Current Trajectory and 50% in Net Zero

Total fossil fuel demand falls by 60% between 2022 and 2050 in Net Zero but continues to increase in Current Trajectory

The share of solar and wind in electricity generation grows to 33% in Current Trajectory and about 75% in Net Zero by 2050


  • GDP in emerging economies (excluding China) grows at a rate of 3.2% a year in 2022-50, almost triple the growth rate of developed economies.
  • Energy demand continues to grow in Current Trajectory driven by increasing prosperity and living standards. Demand peaks in Net Zero in the early 2030s as energy efficiency impacts dominate. By 2050, emerging economies (excluding China) account for about half of the world’s energy demand in both scenarios.
  • Renewables expand over the outlook, with their share in primary energy increasing from 17% in 2022 to 23-56% by 2050.
  • Electricity generation more than triples in Net Zero and more than doubles in Current Trajectory.
  • Oil demand falls from 39 Mb/d in 2022 to 16 Mb/d in 2050 in Net Zero. Oil demand increases instead by about 10% in Current Trajectory.
  • Natural gas demand grows by about 50% between 2022 and 2050 in Current Trajectory, accounting for the entire growth in global gas demand over the outlook. This is driven by increasing use in power and industrial sectors. The shift to electrification and lower carbon fuels limits the growth of natural gas in Net Zero, with demand in 2050 about 50% lower relative to 2022 levels.
  • The share of coal demand in primary energy decreases significantly in Net Zero, from about 20% in 2022 to roughly 5% in 2050. The share stays relatively flat in Current Trajectory.
  • Traditional biomass is largely phased out by 2050 in Net Zero, as access to electricity and clean cooking fuels increases. Its use is more persistent in Current Trajectory, with traditional biomass use peaking in the early 2040s and reaching 24 EJ in 2050.
  • Carbon emissions fall by around 85% in Net Zero relative to 2022 levels, reaching 2.5 Gt of CO2e in 2050. They grow instead in Current Trajectory, reaching 20Gt of CO2e in 2050, accounting for two-thirds of global emissions.