Global energy consumption grows by around one-third over the Outlook; energy intensity falls faster than at any time since at least 1965, and the energy mix shifts towards lower carbon fuels
Annual growth in global energy consumption
Renewables' contribution to global primary energy growth
Decline in energy use per unit of GDP
- World energy demand is projected to grow by 1.3% p.a. from 2016 to 2040. All of this growth comes from emerging economies, with China and India each accounting for over a quarter the increase.
- Global energy intensity (the ratio of energy demand to GDP) is projected to decline by 1.9% p.a. over this period – faster than in any 25-year period since our data began in 1965.
- Half of the growth in energy consumption comes from industrial uses (combusted and non-combusted); just over a third from buildings; and about a sixth from transport.
- Renewables provide 43% of the growth in energy over the Outlook; their share in primary energy rises from 4% today to 14% by 2040.
- Solar (+11.1% p.a.) and wind (+6.9% p.a.) are the fastest growing sources of energy. Their combined share of global power generation increases from 5% to 21% by 2040.
- Gas (+1.6% p.a.) overtakes coal to become the second-largest global energy source by 2025.
- Oil (+0.5% p.a.) remains the leading global fuel but plateaus from around 2030. Coal demand peaks in the mid-2020s, leaving the level of coal use in 2040 barely 1% higher than in 2016.
- Global oil demand increases by around 11 Mb/d to reach 105 Mb/d by 2040. The growth of demand is roughly equally split between the transport sector and non-combusted uses.
- Global oil production becomes geographically more concentrated as low-cost producers gain share. The Middle East, US, and Russia account for 69% of oil production in 2040, up from 60% in 2016.
- Unconventional gas accounts for more than half of the growth in global gas supplies over the Outlook and almost a third of global gas supplies by 2040.
- Liquefied natural gas more than doubles over the Outlook, overtaking gas shipped inter-regionally by pipeline.
- CO2 emissions from energy use continue to grow, rising by 10% by 2040.