Global insights

Projections

• World energy demand is projected to grow by 1.3% p.a. from 2016 to 2040. All of this growth comes from emerging economies, with China and India each accounting for over a quarter the increase.
  
• Global energy intensity (the ratio of energy demand to GDP) is projected to decline by 1.9% p.a. over this period – faster than in any 25-year period since our data began in 1965.
• Half of the growth in energy consumption comes from industrial uses (combusted and non-combusted); just over a third from buildings; and about a sixth from transport.
  
• Renewables provide 43% of the growth in energy over the Outlook; their share in primary energy rises from 4% today to 14% by 2040.
  
• Solar (+11.1% p.a.) and wind (+6.9% p.a.) are the fastest growing sources of energy. Their combined share of global power generation increases from 5% to 21% by 2040.
  
• Gas (+1.6% p.a.) overtakes coal to become the second-largest global energy source by 2025.
  
• Oil (+0.5% p.a.) remains the leading global fuel but plateaus from around 2030. Coal demand peaks in the mid-2020s, leaving the level of coal use in 2040 barely 1% higher than in 2016.
• Global oil demand increases by around 11 Mb/d to reach 105 Mb/d by 2040. The growth of demand is roughly equally split between the transport sector and non-combusted uses.
• Global oil production becomes geographically more concentrated as low-cost producers gain share. The Middle East, US, and Russia account for 69% of oil production in 2040, up from 60% in 2016.
• Unconventional gas accounts for more than half of the growth in global gas supplies over the Outlook and almost a third of global gas supplies by 2040.
  
• Liquefied natural gas more than doubles over the Outlook, overtaking gas shipped inter-regionally by pipeline.
  
• CO₂ emissions from energy use continue to grow, rising by 10% by 2040.