Global insights

Projections

• Energy demand grows by 0.3% p.a. in Rapid and Net Zero and 0.7% p.a. in Business-as-usual (BAU). This is significantly slower than the past 20 years, reflecting weaker economic growth and faster improvements in energy intensity.

• Between 2018 and 2050 net carbon emissions from energy use decline by 10% in BAU, 72% in Rapid and 96% in Net Zero.

• Global energy intensity declines in all three scenarios. In BAU it declines by 45% and by 53% in both Rapid and Net Zero.

• The industrial sector remains the largest consumer of energy, albeit with small declines in its share under all three scenarios.
  
• Energy demand from the transport sector grows by 0.7% p.a. in both Rapid and Net Zero and by 0.9% p.a. in BAU. However, growth is significantly slower than the past 20 years (2.2% p.a.).

• Oil and coal consumption decline in all three scenarios. For oil, the decline ranges from 10% to 78%. For coal the decline is more marked, ranging from 22% to 92%.

• The outlook for gas is more durable than either coal or oil. Consumption in 2050 increases by 35% in BAU and drops by 4% in Rapid and 41% in Net Zero.

• Nuclear gains share in the energy mix in all scenarios, reaching 7% BAU, 9% in Rapid and 10% in Net Zero.
  
• On average, renewable energy consumption grows every year by 5.7% in BAU, 7.5% in Rapid and 8.5% in Net Zero, aided by falling costs of production and policies encouraging a shift to lower carbon energy sources.

• The share of primary energy absorbed by the power sector increases from 43% in 2018 to 53% in BAU and 61% in both Rapid and Net Zero.

• Global carbon emissions decline by 10% in BAU, 72% in Rapid and 96% in Net Zero between 2018 and 2050.