bp’s Energy Outlook 2023 explores the key uncertainties surrounding the energy transition and focuses on three scenarios (Accelerated, Net Zero and New Momentum).
These scenarios are not predictions of what is likely to happen, or what bp would like to happen. Rather, they are designed to span a wide range of the outcomes possible out to 2050. In doing so, they can be used to inform bp’s core beliefs about the energy transition and help to shape a bp strategy that is resilient to the uncertainty surrounding the speed and nature of the energy transition.
The scenarios in this year’s Outlook have been updated to take account of two major developments over the past year: the Russia-Ukraine war and the passing of the Inflation Reduction Act in the US.
Accelerated and Net Zero explore how different elements of the energy system might change to achieve a substantial reduction in carbon emissions. They can be viewed as ‘what if’ scenarios: what might need to change if the world collectively takes action for CO2-equivalent emissions (CO2e) to fall by around 75% by 2050 (relative to 2019 levels) in Accelerated and over 95% in Net Zero.
New Momentum is designed to capture the broad trajectory along which the global energy system is currently travelling. It places weight on the marked increase in global ambition for decarbonization in recent years, as well as on the manner and speed of it over the recent past. CO2e emissions in New Momentum peak in the late-2020s and by 2050, are around 20% below 2019 levels.
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