Energy Outlook 2025: What to expect from this year’s report

Why is the Energy Outlook so valuable for bp and for the wider energy sector?

The Outlook is a chance to explore the uncertainties of the energy transition and wider global developments over the past year. We explore global trends and consider the contributions of key countries and sectors to energy demand.

Put together each year by our economic and energy insights team – a group of economists, engineers and scientists – the report outlines two possible scenarios for the evolution of the energy transition. It highlights trends that appear in both scenarios, as well as those that are more dependent on the speed of the transition. 

This year, I’m particularly excited about a new section where we look at some important current issues influencing the energy system, like increasing geopolitical fragmentation.

In our rapidly changing world, the Energy Outlook is as important as ever.

What key global developments from the past year have impacted your views on the energy system?

We’ve seen changes in some countries’ energy and decarbonization policies, and as I mentioned earlier, signs of the global economy becoming more fragmented. These shifts will all have implications for the energy the world produces and consumes in the years to come. 

And, of course, we’ve seen rapid developments in artificial intelligence – in the technology itself, in its demand for energy, and in the expectations around its use in the coming years.

The world has been consuming more of all kinds of energy. We’ve seen continued rapid growth in investment in the low carbon energy system, especially in increasing levels of electrification and in wind and solar power generation. At the same time, global demand for fossil fuels has been resilient, too. 

The Outlook looks at how those trends impact the global energy system.

What  are the key themes discussed in this year’s Outlook?

We look at how global energy demand growth is driven by emerging economies, underpinned by rising prosperity and living standards. We also look at the structure of energy demand changes, with electricity demand doubling by 2050 compared to today. And we discuss how the outlook for oil demand is shaped by two counteracting forces: a diminishing role in road transport, offset by more persistent use of oil as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector.  

In addition to this, we talk about the implications of a greater focus on energy security, the importance of energy efficiency on energy consumption, and the rapid development and use of AI. 

It’s a really fascinating time to be thinking about the global energy system. I hope this year’s Outlook will help to inform the global debate around the energy transition and, more importantly, that we will learn from everyone’s reactions and comments.  

I’m very much looking forward to sharing the full report with you at our launch event on 25 September, and I hope lots of people will join us.