The passenger car fleet of the future

The number of passenger cars on the planet looks set to increase substantially with the 'parc' nearly doubling to 2 billion by 2040

What it shows

The number of passenger cars on the planet looks set to increase substantially with the 'parc' nearly doubling to 2 billion by 2040, according to one scenario outlined in BP's Energy Outlook. In this 'Evolving Transition' scenario there are more than 300 million electric cars on the roads in the coming decades.

What's the impact on energy demand?

Energy demand in the passenger car sector continues to be dominated by oil despite increasing penetration of alternatives like battery electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

However, the rise in vehicle numbers looks to be accompanied by greater vehicle efficiency. In the EU, new cars in 2040 could be around 70% more efficient than in 2000. A typical new ICE passenger car in the EU by 2040 consumes around 3 litres per 100km, compared with 5 litres today and 7 litres in 2000.

And another thing...

The number of electric cars grows to around 15% of the car parc, but because of the much higher intensity with which they are used, account for 30% of passenger vehicle kilometers