Global oil demand broadly plateaus over the remainder of this decade, before declining further out, led by falling use in road transport.
Oil used in road transport declines over the outlook, as the impact of increasing demand for road transportation is more than offset by improving vehicle efficiency and the switch to electric vehicles.
The most resilient component of oil demand is the use of oil as a feedstock in the petrochemicals sector, underpinned by continuing demand for plastics as the world economy expands and by the limited scope for efficiency improvements or substitution when oil is used as a feedstock rather than as an energy source.
The changing level, mix and geographical composition of refined product demand, together with increasing use of non-refined alternatives, leads to increasing pressure on refinery utilisation and rationalisation.
The composition of global oil production changes over time, as US tight oil plateaus and declines in global oil demand fall disproportionately on non-OPEC+ producers.