bp’s Energy Outlook 2025 uses two scenarios – Current Trajectory and Below 2° – to consider a range of possible outcomes for the global energy system out to 2050.
The scenarios explore the key uncertainties underpinning the global energy transition. They help us to understand which trends are more likely to occur under a range of different assumptions, and which are more sensitive to the speed and shape of the energy transition.
The scenarios consider carbon emissions from energy production and use, most non-energy related industrial processes, and natural gas flaring plus methane emissions from the production, transportation and distribution of fossil fuels, together with the incomplete combustion of traditional bioenergy (see Carbon emissions definitions and sources in the Annex for more details).
Current Trajectory scenario
Current Trajectory is designed to capture the broad pathway along which the global energy system is travelling. It places weight on climate and energy policies now in place and on recent trends and shifts in those policies. It also puts weight on global aims and pledges for future decarbonization, while recognizing the challenges associated with meeting some of those aims and pledges.
In Current Trajectory, CO2 equivalent (CO2e) emissions are roughly flat around their current levels throughout the remainder of this decade, before gradually declining over the 2030s and 2040s. Emissions fall by around a quarter from their 2023 level by 2050.
Below 2° scenario
Below 2° explores how different elements of the energy system might change in a pathway in which the world achieves much more substantial falls in emissions. In this scenario, net emissions decline by around 90% from their 2023 level by 2050. Below 2° assumes a significant tightening in climate policies alongside shifts in societal behaviour and preferences, which together support more rapid adoption of low carbon energy alongside faster gains in energy efficiency.
Implied temperature increases
It is not possible to directly infer the increase in global average temperatures in 2100 implied by these scenarios, given they extend only to 2050 and do not model all forms of greenhouse gas emissions. However, it is possible to make indirect inferences by comparing cumulative carbon emissions for the period 2015-50 with the ranges of corresponding emissions in the scenarios included in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (see Carbon emissions definitions and sources in the Annex for more details).
Cumulative emissions in Below 2° are broadly in the middle of the range of those in the IPCC’s ‘C3’ scenarios – that is, scenarios consistent with a greater than 67% probability of limiting average global temperature rises to 2°C (see Carbon emissions definitions and sources in the Annex). On that basis, Below 2° might be considered broadly consistent with limiting the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C. In contrast, cumulative emissions in Current Trajectory are well above the range of C3 scenarios, suggesting it is not consistent with limiting the global average temperature rise to well below 2°C.
The following sections of this Energy Outlook explore these two scenarios in more detail. A final section – Sensitivities – considers some alternative sensitivities around these scenarios, including the possible effects of greater geopolitical fragmentation, and of persistently weaker improvements in energy efficiency.