1. Home
  2. Energy economics
  3. Energy Outlook
  4. Changes since Energy Outlook 2022

Main changes since Energy Outlook 2022

30 January 2023

The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to have long-lasting effects on the global energy system

The Russia-Ukraine war is likely to have a persistent effect on the future path of the global energy system, increasing the focus on energy security, weakening economic growth, and changing the mix of energy supplies.


The past year has been dominated by the terrible consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war and its awful toll on lives and communities. Over and above the human tragedy, the war is likely to have significant social, economic, and political implications.


From an energy perspective, this year’s Outlook has modelled the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war as operating through three main channels: energy security, economic growth, and composition of global energy supplies. At the time of writing, the war is continuing with no end in sight; as such this analysis should be treated as preliminary and subject to change depending on future developments.

Energy security – icon

Heightened energy security concerns

The increased focus on energy security triggered by concerns about energy shortages and vulnerability to geopolitical events is assumed to cause countries and regions to strive to reduce their dependency on imported energy and instead consume more domestically produced energy. It also gives greater incentive to improve energy efficiency, reducing the need for all types of energy.

Economic growth – icon

Weaker economic growth

The higher food and energy prices associated with the Russia-Ukraine war have contributed to a sharp slowing in global economic growth. The direct economic impact of this commodity price shock is set to persist for the next few years. Further out, the war is assumed to reduce somewhat the pace of global integration and trade, as countries and regions heighten their focus on domestic resilience and reduce their exposures to international shocks. This slower pace of globalization leads to a small reduction in average economic growth over the next 30 years.

Global energy supplies – icon

Changing mix of global energy supplies

The future of Russian energy supplies is uncertain. The scenarios in this year’s Outlook assume a persistent reduction in Russian exports of hydrocarbons. In the near term, this reflects the impact of voluntary and mandatory sanctions on Russian energy exports. Further out, it stems from the assumption that sanctions affecting Russia’s access to foreign investment and technologies ease only gradually.

More details on the assumptions used to model the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war can be found in the Annex.