The scenarios can be used to identify three trends in energy demand which are apparent across a range of different transition pathways: a gradual decline in the role of hydrocarbons; a rapid expansion of renewable energy; and an increasing electrification of the world. The consistency of these trends across all three scenarios helps underpin some of bp’s core beliefs about the energy transition.
The transition to a low-carbon energy system in Accelerated and Net Zero is underpinned by rapid growth in a broad range of low-carbon energy sources and technologies: wind and solar power, electric vehicles, biofuels, and low-carbon hydrogen.
The transition to a low-carbon energy system would be likely to lead to a fundamental reshaping of global energy markets, with a more diversified energy mix, increased levels of competition, and a greater role for customer choice. These changes can be illustrated by the changing structure of energy markets in Accelerated; similar features are also apparent in Net Zero.
The nature of the finite carbon budget consistent with achieving the Paris climate goals means that every year in which decisive action to reduce global carbon emissions is delayed, the difficulty of staying within the budget significantly increases. This raises the risk that an extended period of delay could greatly increase the economic and social costs associated with trying to remain within the carbon budget.
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bp has been recognized by the United Nations Environmental Programme for our plans to measure and reduce methane