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Regional insight – Africa

1 February 2023
Despite the strong long-term impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, Africa’s demand for electricity increases strongly, with wind and solar deployment increasing exponentially under all three scenarios


28% to 73%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios


3x to 5x

increase in power generation in 2050-2019

25x to 112x

increase in wind and solar deployment in 2019-2050

41% to -75%

net change in CO₂ emissions by 2050

The share of electricity in total final consumption of energy increases from 10% to 20%-54%, depending on the scenario
The share of wind and solar in electricity generation grows from 3% today to almost 70% in Accelerated and Net Zero
Natural gas production increases only in New Momentum to reach 10% of total global production from 6% today


  • The long-term impact of the Russia Ukraine war on economic growth is negative and significant, Africa grows at an average rate of 2.6% a year in 2019-2050, down from around 4% over the past 20 years.
  • Primary energy consumption increases in all three scenarios, with renewables multiplying by a factor of two.
  • Wind and solar used in electricity generation increase from around 30 TWh in 2019 to 650 TWh in New Momentum to 3,000 TWh in Net Zero.
  • The large increase in renewable penetration reduces the carbon intensity of the electricity sector from around 575 gr/kWh to around 320 gr/kWh in New Momentum. The sector is virtually decarbonized in Net Zero.
  • Modern bioenergy increases in all scenarios, between 15%-110%. On the other hand, traditional biomass used in the building sectors declines 90% in Accelerated and around 99% in Net Zero.
  • Oil’s share in Africa’s fuel mix declines under all scenarios, falling from 25% in 2019 to between 20% and 8% in 2050.
  • Natural gas is more resilient. The share of natural gas in total primary energy increases to 20% in New Momentum by 2050 from 16% 2019. However, there is a decrease in the other two scenarios with this share falling to 7-12%.
  • Coal consumption is resilient in New Momentum with its share in the primary energy mix falling from 13% to 11% in 2019-2050.
  • Production of oil declines in all scenarios in Africa. Oil production decreases sharply from 9 Mb/d today to 2 Mb/d in Accelerated and 3 Mb/d in New Momentum.
  • Net CO2 emissions increase by 48% in New Momentum, due to the relatively high share of fossil fuels in the energy mix in this scenario. However, in Net Zero, net emissions decrease by 75% and by 42% in Accelerated.