In 2040, Africa accounts for 22% (2.0 billion) of the world’s population compared to 16% today. The region represents 49% of the global increase.
Energy demand grows at 3.5% p.a., much faster than the global average (1.3% p.a.), and also faster than during 1990-2016 (2.7% p.a.). This reflects increasing levels of industrialization and productivity.
Natural gas meets 32% of incremental demand, while non-fossil fuels and oil account for 29% each.
The share of non-fossil fuels increases from 8% today to 19% by 2040. Renewables experience the fastest growth (13% p.a.), with solar growing at 19% p.a..
Energy consumed in power generation increases by 3.9% p.a. over the Outlook. Gas remains the dominant fuel in the power mix, with a share of 35% by 2040, while the contribution of renewables increases from 3% today to 20% by 2040 and hydro from 15% to 18%.
Energy production in Africa grows by 58%. It remains dominated by oil, but its share drops from over 50% to 34%. Meanwhile gas’s contribution converges with that of oil, reaching 33% by 2040.
Gas production expands by 22 Bcf/d over the Outlook. A large part of this increase meets Africa’s increasing needs (+19 Bcf/d), but net exports also increase.
LNG exports double to 9.8 Bcf/d by 2040, largely driven by new LNG plants in East and West Africa.
Oil production expands marginally by 0.5 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach 9 Mb/d by 2040. As demand increases by 3 Mb/d, this implies a drop in net exports.
Coal production expands to 206 Mtoe by 2040. Net exports slightly decline over the Outlook.
Per capita energy demand increases by one-third over the Outlook, but remains very low at only one quarter of the world’s average.