We project that Africa experiences the fastest energy demand growth among the world’s regions - driven by urbanization, rising population, and strong GDP growth
Growth in Africa’s energy consumption
Share of global energy consumption in 2035
Growth in Africa’s energy production
- In 2035, Africa accounts for 21% (1.8 billion) of the world’s population compared to 16% today. The region also accounts for 45% of the global increase.
- Energy demand is projected to grow by over 75% between 2015 and 2035, much faster than the global average of 31%. By 2035 African demand accounts for less than 5% of the global total.
- Renewables grow strongly (+14.0% p.a.) contributing 17% to total African energy demand growth. Hydro also grows strongly (over 5.2% p.a.) and contributes nearly 14% to demand growth.
- Fossil fuels account for over 80% of demand in 2035, with natural gas (+80%), oil (+56%) and coal (+25%) all expanding.
- Oil remains the dominant fuel accounting for over one-third of energy demand, followed by gas (nearly 30%) and coal (16%).
- By sector, ongoing urbanization and electrification means energy demand in power generation more than doubles and accounts for over 45% of energy demand in 2035.
- Energy production in Africa grows by nearly 30% and remains dominated by oil. Oil’s share, however, shrinks from over 50% in 2015 to just below 40% in 2035, with natural gas rising from 24% to 28%.
- Africa currently exports a significant amount of its energy production (nearly 45%), but growing domestic demand reduces this ratio to below 25% by 2035.
- Nevertheless the region remains an important source of global oil and natural gas supply, accounting for 8% of global oil and 6% of natural gas production in 2035.
- By 2035 the continent is projected to produce 8.3 Mb/d of oil, of which over 2 Mb/d will be for export down from 5 Mb/d of export today.
- The equivalent numbers for gas are 30 Bcf/d of output by 2035, of which 6.5 Bcf/d will be for export down from 7.4 Bcf/d today.