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Regional insight – Middle East

The Middle East energy mix diversifies considerably with renewables growing about 10% pa faster than the world’s average, although oil and gas retain a significant role in all three scenarios

Highlights

-18% to +40%

Primary energy growth over 2018-2050

37% to 79%

Share of oil and gas in primary energy in 2050

37% to 45%

Share in global oil production

Under all three scenarios, the Middle East retains a significant share of oil and gas in its primary energy demand

Renewable energy consumption surges, increasing 100 to 220-fold depending on the scenario

The Middle East remains a key oil producer, with its share in global output ranging from 37% to 45% in BAU and Rapid

Projections

  • The Middle East's economy grows at a rate of 1.7% per annum over 2018-2050, down sharply from 3.7% in 1990-2018.
  • Primary energy consumption increases by 40% in BAU and 7% in Rapid but drops by 18% in Net Zero as energy efficiency and a shift towards a more circular economy enable a demand drop in all sectors.
  • Non-combusted is the most resilient source of demand across all scenarios, with consumption almost flat in Net Zero. Buildings becomes the largest consuming sector in both BAU and Rapid. Meanwhile, demand in transport and industry drops in both Net Zero and Rapid.
  • Both oil and gas remain important components of the primary energy mix, with their combined shares dropping from 98% in 2018 to 61%, 37% and 79% in Rapid, Net Zero and BAU respectively.
  • The Middle East remains a large oil and gas producer and exporter in all scenarios. Oil production remains constant at 32 mb/d in BAU and drops by one-third in Rapid, while gas production increases by 50% in BAU and remains flat in Rapid at 680 bcm.
  • Renewables grow by a factor 170, 220 and 100 in Rapid, Net Zero and BAU respectively. In Net Zero, solar (9 EJ) represents over half of renewables (17 EJ), ahead of wind.
  • The electrification of the energy system is widespread, with the share of power in primary energy ranging from 41% to 63% across all three scenarios by 2050.
  • There are a wide range of possible outcomes with regards to CO2 emissions. Emissions under BAU increase by 6% but drop by 60% and 89% in Rapid and Net Zero respectively, with over 200 Mt per year of CCUS in the Middle East in both scenarios.