Regional insight – Middle East

The Middle East remains a large net energy exporter, the world’s largest oil exporting region, but it loses share as an LNG exporter

Growth in Middle East’s energy consumption

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

Growth in Middle East’s energy production

  • Middle East energy consumption increases by 54% by 2040, with natural gas representing almost 60% of that growth. Oil and coal both lose share at the expense of gas and non-fossil fuels.
  • The contribution of non-fossil fuels increases from 1% today to 8% in 2040, led by strong growth in solar, wind (each over 20% p.a.) and nuclear (15% p.a.). Still, by 2040, solar represents only 4% of total energy demand.
  • Natural gas consumption grows by 2.0% p.a., and oil consumption by 1.1% p.a., slightly faster than the global average of 1.6% p.a. and 0.5% p.a., respectively. Oil’s share falls from 47% to 37%.
  • Non-combusted energy demand is the fastest growing sector at 3.1% p.a., while industry remains the largest consuming sector representing 37% of primary energy demand by 2040.
  • Energy consumed in power generation increases by 1.7% p.a. from 2016 to 2040. Oil’s share in power generation drops from 30% to 12%, as the share of non-fossil fuels rises from 2% to 24%.
  • Energy intensity is projected to fall by 21% by 2040, but the region is still almost twice as energy intensive as the world’s average. Energy consumption per capita rises to reach OECD levels by 2040.
  • Liquids production increases by 5 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach over 37 Mb/d by 2040, over one-third of global liquids output.
  • Conventional oil production reaches 29 Mb/d by 2040 from 26 Mb/d in 2016 while NGLs rise to 6 Mb/d and condensate to 2 Mb/d by 2040.
  • Natural gas production increases by 60% over the Outlook, mostly led by Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
  • The region remains the largest LNG exporter throughout the Outlook, representing 25% of global LNG exports by 2040, down from 35% in 2016. Pipeline exports to other regions increase to 3 Bcf/d by 2040.  

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