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Regional insight – Middle East

Published:
14 March 2022
Oil and gas continue to play a significant role, both in terms of share of primary energy and share of global production, but renewables grow by more than twice the global average rate 

Highlights

Over 20%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios

16% to 60%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050

2.5% to 4%

annual growth in power generation 2019-2050

-1% to -86%

reduction in net CO₂e emissions by 2050 relative to 2019

Under all three scenarios, Middle East’s primary energy consumption grows by over 20%

Power generation more than doubles in all scenarios to 2050

The Middle East continues its role as a major oil and gas producer, growing its share of global output in all scenarios

Projections

  • Primary energy grows strongly in all three scenarios, with average growth per year in the range of 0.6%-0.9%.
  • The production of hydrogen for use in industry and transport and for export grows considerably, particularly over the second half of the outlook in Accelerated and Net Zero. Annual growth in generation between 2010-2050 is 1.9% in New Momentum and 4.9%-5.9% in Accelerated and Net Zero respectively.
  • The share of natural gas in primary energy initially grows in all three scenarios, from 52% in 2019. Its share in New Momentum is resilient, reaching 50% by 2050. In Accelerated and Net Zero, its share falls to 30% and 22% in 2050 respectively.
  • Renewable energy growth is high in the three scenarios with average growth per year in the range of 13%-18%. As a result, renewable energy becomes the largest source of primary energy in 2050 in Net Zero and Accelerated, and the third largest in New Momentum after oil and natural gas. Renewable energy represents between 16% and 60% of total primary energy in 2050.
  • Power generation more than doubles in all scenarios by 2050. As a result of this strong growth, this sector makes up 36% of total primary energy in 2050 under New Momentum, 44% in Accelerated and approximately half in Net Zero.
  • Carbon emissions decrease in New Momentum by around 1% in 2050, while in Accelerated and Net Zero, emissions decrease by 62% and 86%, respectively. Carbon captured in CCUS makes up close to 10% of the global total in 2050, in both Accelerated and Net Zero.
  • The region’s shares of global oil and natural gas production increase in all three scenarios. Combined oil and gas energy production grows from 25% of the global total in 2019, to between 28% and 35% in 2050, with its share in Net Zero being the highest of the scenarios.