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Regional insight – Middle East

1 February 2023
Oil and gas continue to play a significant role, both in terms of share of primary energy and share of global production, but renewable energy grows by more than three times the global average


Over 20%

growth in primary energy in 2019-2050 under all scenarios


15% to 60%

share of renewables in primary energy in 2050


64% to 525%

growth in hydrogen generation in 2019-2050


-3% to -84%

net change in CO2e emissions by 2050


Under all three scenarios, the Middle East’s primary energy consumption grows by over 20%

Renewable energy grows strongly in all scenarios, becoming the largest energy source in Accelerated and Net Zero

The Middle East continues its role as a major oil and gas producer, growing its share of global output in all scenarios


  • Primary energy grows steadily in the Middle East under all three scenarios, by just under 1% a year in 2019-2050, down from 4.2% a year over the past 20 years.
  • Renewable energy is the fastest growing source of primary energy in the outlook in the Middle East, growing at a pace of 13-18% per year to 2050 across the scenarios, well above the global average rate of renewables growth. Its share in primary energy grows from less than 1% in 2019, to 15% by 2050 in New Momentum, 46% in Accelerated and 60% in Net Zero.
  • Electricity generation more than doubles in all scenarios by 2050. Power grows its share in total final consumption, especially in the second half of the outlook, to between 23%-48% in 2050.
  • Natural gas the largest source of primary energy in New Momentum, its share remaining above 50%, similar to levels seen over the past five years. In Accelerated and Net Zero, its share declines from the 2030s onwards, to 31% and 23% by 2050 respectively.
  • The share of oil in primary energy declines across the scenarios, from 45% in 2019 to 11%-31% by 2050. The decline is fastest in Accelerated and Net Zero, driven mainly by faster decarbonization of the electricity sector in the first half of the outlook.
  • The region’s shares of global oil and natural gas production increase in all three scenarios. In oil, its share nearly doubles in Accelerated and Net Zero, to around 60% by 2050, and increases to 45% in New Momentum.
  • Hydrogen production grows for use in industry, transport and for export. Growth in production between 2019 and 2050 ranges from 64% in New Momentum, to a more than five-fold increase in Net Zero.
  • Carbon emissions decline by just -0.1% per year in New Momentum, while in Accelerated and Net Zero they decrease by -2.8% and -5.7% per year respectively. The region accounts for around 10% of the carbon emissions sequestered into CCS globally in Accelerated and Net Zero in 2050.