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Regional insight – Middle East

The Middle East remains a large net energy exporter, the world’s largest oil exporting region, but it loses share as an LNG exporter

Highlights

54% increase

Growth in Middle East’s energy consumption

8%

Share of global energy consumption in 2040

31% increase

Growth in Middle East’s energy production

Projections

  • Middle East energy consumption increases by 54% by 2040, with natural gas representing almost 60% of that growth. Oil and coal both lose share at the expense of gas and non-fossil fuels.
  • The contribution of non-fossil fuels increases from 1% today to 8% in 2040, led by strong growth in solar, wind (each over 20% p.a.) and nuclear (15% p.a.). Still, by 2040, solar represents only 4% of total energy demand.
  • Natural gas consumption grows by 2.0% p.a., and oil consumption by 1.1% p.a., slightly faster than the global average of 1.6% p.a. and 0.5% p.a., respectively. Oil’s share falls from 47% to 37%.
  • Non-combusted energy demand is the fastest growing sector at 3.1% p.a., while industry remains the largest consuming sector representing 37% of primary energy demand by 2040.
  • Energy consumed in power generation increases by 1.7% p.a. from 2016 to 2040. Oil’s share in power generation drops from 30% to 12%, as the share of non-fossil fuels rises from 2% to 24%.
  • Energy intensity is projected to fall by 21% by 2040, but the region is still almost twice as energy intensive as the world’s average. Energy consumption per capita rises to reach OECD levels by 2040.
  • Liquids production increases by 5 Mb/d over the Outlook to reach over 37 Mb/d by 2040, over one-third of global liquids output.
  • Conventional oil production reaches 29 Mb/d by 2040 from 26 Mb/d in 2016 while NGLs rise to 6 Mb/d and condensate to 2 Mb/d by 2040.
  • Natural gas production increases by 60% over the Outlook, mostly led by Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
  • The region remains the largest LNG exporter throughout the Outlook, representing 25% of global LNG exports by 2040, down from 35% in 2016. Pipeline exports to other regions increase to 3 Bcf/d by 2040.