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Modelling guidance

The purpose of this page is to collate existing available public information that may assist with the financial modelling of bp. Please also refer to our legal notice. 

Trading conditions update

The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.

 

Content includes the following:

  • Current and historic market prices
  • Current and historic marker margins
  • Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM
Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2023 Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit
Oil price*
Brent +/- $1/bbl
$340m
Natural gas price*
Henry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu
$30m 
Customers & products refining margin
RMM +/- $ 1/bbl
$400m 
*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy

Find out more about our trading conditions update

 

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Upcoming quarters guidance

Below is bp's 1Q24 guidance as at 4Q23 results publication on 6 February 2024

  • Looking ahead, bp expects first quarter 2024 reported upstream production to be higher compared to fourth-quarter 2023.
  • In its customers business, bp expects seasonally lower volumes across most businesses and the absence of one-off positive effects from the fourth quarter. In addition, bp expects fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply.
  • In products, bp expects a significantly lower level of refinery turnaround activity compared to the fourth quarter. In addition, bp expects lower industry refining margins, with a larger reduction in realized margins due to narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials.

 

Full year guidance

Below is bp's 2024 guidance as at 4Q23 results publication on 6 February 2024

  • bp expects both reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher compared with 2023. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
  • In its customers business, bp expects continued growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from TravelCenters of America; a stronger contribution from Castrol underpinned by volume growth in focus markets; and continued margin growth from bp pulse driven by higher energy sold. In addition, bp expects fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply.
  • In products, bp expects a lower level of industry refining margins, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. bp expects refinery turnaround activity to have a similar impact on both throughput and financial performance compared to 2023, with phasing of activity in 2024 heavily weighted towards the second half.
  • bp expects the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2024. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter.
  • bp expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly higher than 2023.
  • bp expects the underlying ETR for 2024 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current price environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
  • bp expects capital expenditure of around $16 billion, weighted to the first half. 
  • bp expects divestment and other proceeds of $2-3 billion in 2024, weighted towards the second half. Having realized $17.8 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025.
  • bp expects Gulf of Mexico oil spill payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter.

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