The purpose of this page is to collate existing available public information that may assist with the financial modelling of bp.
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Trading conditions update
The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.
Content includes the following:
- Current and historic market prices
- Current and historic marker margins
- Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM
Find out more about our trading conditions update
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Upcoming quarters guidance
Below is bp's 3Q24 guidance as at 2Q24 results publication on 30 July 2024
- Looking ahead, bp expects third quarter 2024 reported upstream production to be lower compared with second-quarter 2024, including higher margin regions.
- In its customers business, bp expects fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in cost of supply, and seasonally higher volumes compared to the second quarter.
- In products, bp expects realized refining margins to continue to be sensitive to relative movements in product cracks and North American heavy crude oil differentials. In addition bp expects a similar level of turnaround activity to the second quarter.
- bp expects income taxes paid in the third quarter to be around $1 billion higher than the second quarter 2024 mainly due to the timing of instalment payments, which are typically higher in the third quarter each year.
Full year guidance
Below is bp's 2024 guidance as at 2Q24 results publication on 30 July 2024
- bp continues to expect both reported and underlying upstream production to be slightly higher compared with 2023. Within this, bp continues to expect underlying production from oil production & operations to be higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
- In its customers business, bp continues to expect growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from TravelCenters of America; a stronger contribution from Castrol underpinned by volume growth in focus markets; and continued margin growth from bp pulse driven by higher energy sold. In addition, bp continues to expect fuels margin to remain sensitive to the cost of supply.
- In products, bp continues to expect a lower level of industry refining margins relative to 2023, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. bp now expects refinery turnaround activity to have a lower financial impact compared to 2023 reflecting the lower margin environment, with phasing of activity in 2024 heavily weighted towards the second half, with a higher impact in the fourth quarter.
- bp continues to expect the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2024. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter.
- bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly higher than 2023.
- bp continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2024 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current price environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
- bp continues to expect capital expenditure for 2024 to be around $16 billion, and continues to expect the phasing to be split broadly evenly between the first half and the second half.
- bp continues to expect divestment and other proceeds of $2-3 billion in 2024, weighted towards the second half. Having realized $18.9 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025.
- bp continues to expect Gulf of Mexico settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter.
bp expects to update on our medium-term plans at the same time as our full year results in February 2025.
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