The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.
Content includes the following:
Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2023 | Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit |
---|---|
Oil price* Brent +/- $1/bbl |
$340m |
Natural gas price* Henry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu |
$30m |
Customers & products refining margin RMM +/- $ 1/bbl |
$400m |
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Below is bp's macro outlook as at 3Q23 results publication on 31 October 2023
In the fourth quarter:
Below is bp's 4Q23 guidance as at 3Q23 results publication on 31 October 2023
Below is bp's 2023 guidance as at 3Q23 results publication on 31 October 2023
We now have three years under our belt. We have made good progress on our 2025 targets. And we are increasingly confident - not just in those targets - but in the opportunities presented by the energy transition. Below is a summary of the 2025 targets and 2030 aims for the Group and our three strategic focus areas.
EBITDA ($bn) | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
$71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
Resilient hydrocarbons | 30.6 | 56.9 | 40-42 | 41-44 |
Convenience and mobility | 4.4 | 4.3 | ~7 | 9-11 |
Low carbon energy | Growth phase | 2-3 | ||
Group | 34.4 | 60.7 | 46-49 | 53-58 |
Of which: Transition growth engines | 3-4 | 10-12 |
Investor proposition targets | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
$71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
EBIDA per share growth (%), CAGR | >12 | |||
ROACE (%) | 13.3 | 30.5 | >18 | >18 |
Capital expenditure in transition (%) | ~19 | ~30 | >40 | ~50 |
Other guidance | 2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 |
---|---|---|---|---|
$71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
Capital expenditure ($bn) | 12.8 | 16.3 | 14-18 | 14-18 |
Of which: Transition growth engines | 2.4 | 4.9 | 6-8 | 7-9 |
Divestment proceeds - cumulative since 2H20 ($bn) | 7.6 | 15.9 | 25 |
Resilient hydrocarbons (RHC) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Investing more in today's oil and gas system, growing EBITDA through the decade | ||||
2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | |
$71/bbl | $103/bbl | $70/bbl | $70/bbl | |
RHC EBITDA ($bn) | 30.6 | 56.9 | 40-42 | 41-44 |
Oil and gas EBTDA ($bn) | 30-32 | 30-32 | ||
RHC capital expenditure ($bn) | 9.1 | 13.0 | 9-11 | 8-10 |
Oil and gas capital expenditure ($bn) | 8.5 | 8.5 | ||
Oil and gas production (mmboed) |
2.2 | 2.3 | ~2.3 | ~2.0 |
Unit production costs ($/boe) | ~7 | ~6 | ~6 | |
LNG portfolio (mtpa) | 18 | 19 | 25 | 30 |
Biofuels production (mbd) | 26 | 27 | ~50 | ~100 |
Biogas supply volumes (mboed) | 9 | 12 | ~40 | ~70 |
Bioenergy EBITDA ($bn) | ~2 | >4 | ||
Bioenergy expected returns (%) | >15 | |||
Bioenergy cumulative capex (2023-30) ($bn) | ~15 |
Convenience and mobility (C&M) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Aim to double EBITDA to $9-11bn by 2030 with returns of 15-20% | ||||
2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | |
C&M EBITDA (bn) | 4.4 | 4.3 | ~7 | 9-11 |
C&M captital expenditure ($bn) | 1.6 | 1.8 | 2-3 | 3-4 |
Customer touchpoints per day (million) | >12 | ~12 | >15 | >20 |
Strategic convenience sites | 2,150 | 2,400 | ~3,000 | ~3,500 |
EV charge points (000) | ~13 | ~22 | >40 | >100 |
Rapid and ultra fast charging points as a % of total (%) | ~50 | >60 | ~90 | |
EV charging installed capacity (GW) | ~10 | |||
EV charging energy sales (TWh) | ~15 | |||
C&M expected returns (%) | 15-20 | |||
Convenience and EV charging expected returns (%) | >15 | |||
Convenience and EV charging EBITDA ($bn) | >1.5 | >4 | ||
Convenience EBITDA ($bn) | 1.5 | ~2 | ||
EV charging EBITDA ($bn) | positive | ~2 | ||
Convenience gross margin growth (%), constant fx, CAGR (2022-30) | ~10 |
Low carbon energy (LCE) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Aim to grow EBITDA to $2-3bn by 2030 | ||||
2021 | 2022 | 2025 | 2030 | |
LCE EBITDA ($bn) | Growth phase | 2-3 | ||
LCE capital expenditure ($bn) | 1.3 | 1.0 | 3-5 | 3-5 |
Hydrogen production (mpta net) | 0.5-0.7 | |||
Renewables (GW net developed to FID) | 4.4 | 5.8 | 20 | 50 |
Renewables (GW net installed) | 1.9 | 2.2 | ~10 | |
Hydrogen expected returns (unlevered) | Double digit | |||
Renewables expected returns - (unlevered) (%) | 6-8 |
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