Modelling guidance

Trading conditions update

The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.

Content includes the following:

• Current and historic market prices
• Current and historic marker margins
• Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RMM

*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy

Find out more about our trading conditions update

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Upcoming quarters guidance

Below is bp's 2Q 2025 guidance as at 1Q25 results publication on 29 April 2025.

• Looking ahead, bp expects second quarter 2025 reported upstream production to be broadly flat compared with the first-quarter 2025. 

• In its customers business, bp expects seasonally higher volumes compared to the first quarter and fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply. 

• In products, bp expects a significantly higher level of planned refinery turnaround activity compared to the first quarter and refining margin environment to remain sensitive to the economic outlook. 
  

2025 guidance

Below is bp's 2025 guidance as at 1Q25 results publication on 29 April

• bp continues to expect reported upstream production to be lower and underlying upstream production to be slightly lower compared with 2024. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
• In its customers business, bp continues to expect growth in its customers businesses including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy and a higher contribution from TravelCenters of America in part supported by a partial recovery from the US freight recession. Earnings growth is expected to be supported by structural cost reduction. bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply and earnings delivery to remain sensitive to the relative strength of the US dollar.
• In products, bp expects broadly flat refining margins relative to 2024 and stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery, and improvement plans across the portfolio. bp expects similar levels of refinery turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards the first half, with the highest impact in the second quarter. 
• bp continues to expect other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2025. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter.
• bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be broadly flat compared with 2024.
• bp continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2025 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
• bp now expects divestment and other proceeds to be around $3-4 billion in 2025, weighted towards the second half. 
  
• bp continues to expect Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax to be paid during the second quarter.
• bp now expects 2025 capital expenditure including inorganic to be around $14.5 billion.

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Medium-term guidance

 Full detail around our medium targets and guidance can be found in our capital markets update materials.    

Four primary medium-term targets that underpin value growth

Adjusted free cash flow* growth: >20% CAGR from 2024 – 2027

Structural cost reduction: $4 – 5bn by end 2027

Net debt: expected to be reduced to $14 – 18bn by end 2027

(Potential proceeds from any transactions related to Castrol strategic review and announcement to bring a strategic partner into LSbp will be allocated to reduce net debt)

Group ROACE: >16% in 2027

Supporting metrics

Upstream:

• Upstream production growth: 2.3 - 2.5mboed in 2030, with capacity to increase to 2035
• 10 new major projects to start by end 2027 and further 8 to 10 by end 2030: Major projects
• Upstream capex: ~$10.5bn p.a to 2027 (including biogas)
  • ~$10bn oil & gas only (70% oil / 30% gas) 
• Structural cost reductions: ~$1.5bn by end 2027
• Operating cash flow growth: $2bn 2024 to 2027 (including biogas)
• Plant reliability: ~96%
• Reserves replacement ratio: 100% by end 2027

Downstream:

• Customers & products capex: ~$3bn by 2027
• Structural cost reductions: ~$2bn by end 2027 
  • ~$1.5bn in customers
  • >$500m in refining
• Operating cash flow growth: $3.5 to 4bn by 2027 (50% customers, 50% products)
• Realised cash breakeven: ~$3/bbl lower
• Returns: >15% expected
• Refining availability: 96%

Low carbon energy (renewables, H2/CCS):

• Capex: <$800m p.a to 2027
• Structural cost reductions: ~$0.5bn by end 2027
• Returns: mid-teen expected

Transition: includes LCE + biogas, biofuels and EV charging

Note: biogas is reported in G&LCE from 1Q25, biofuels and EV charging will continue to be reported in our customers business  

• Capex: $1.5 to 2bn p.a. to 2027
• Expected returns: >15% 

Price assumptions

Forward looking targets are based on: Brent $70/bbl, HH $4/mmbtu, RRM $17/bbl (2024 real).