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Modelling guidance

5 August 2025

The purpose of this page is to collate existing available public information that may assist with the financial modelling of bp. Please also refer to our legal notice. 

Trading conditions update

The trading conditions update is produced in order to provide equal disclosure to all investors and potential investors of current trading conditions.

 

Content includes the following:

  • Current and historic market prices
  • Current and historic marker margins
  • Rules of thumb for Brent, Henry Hub and RIM
Operating environment rules of thumb for the full year 2025 Impact on pre-tax replacement cost operating profit
Oil price*
Brent +/- $1/bbl
$340m
Natural gas price*
Henry Hub +/- $0.10/mmBtu
$40m 

Refining indicator margin

RIM +/- $ 1/bbl

$550m 
*combined indicator for oil production & operations and gas & low carbon energy

Find out more about our trading conditions update

 

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Upcoming quarters guidance

Below is bp's 3Q 2025 guidance as at 2Q25 results publication on 5 August 2025.

  • Looking ahead, bp expects third quarter 2025 reported upstream production to be slightly lower compared with the second quarter 2025.
  • In its customers business, bp expects seasonally higher volumes compared to the second quarter and fuels margins to remain sensitive to movements in the cost of supply. 
  • In products, bp expects, compared to the second quarter, a significantly lower level of planned refinery turnaround activity, partly offset by seasonal effects of environmental compliance costs. 
  • bp expects income taxes paid in the third quarter to be around $1 billion higher than the second quarter 2025 mainly due to the timing of instalment payments, which are typically higher in the third quarter each year. 
  • On 4 August bp elected to redeem $1.2 billion of its perpetual hybrid bonds, representing the remaining amount callable from June 2025. The hybrid bonds will be redeemed on 1 September 2025 using proceeds from bp's November 2024 hybrid bond issuance.  

2025 guidance

Below is bp's 2025 guidance as at 2Q25 results publication on 5 August,

  • bp continues to expect reported upstream production to be lower and underlying upstream production to be slightly lower compared with 2024. Within this, bp expects underlying production from oil production & operations to be broadly flat and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower. 
  • In its customers business, bp continues to expect growth in its customers businesses including a full year contribution from bp bioenergy. Earnings growth is expected to be supported by structural cost reduction. bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply. 
  • In products, bp continues to expect stronger underlying performance underpinned by the absence of the plant-wide power outage at Whiting refinery, and improvement plans across the portfolio. bp continues to expect similar levels of refinery turnaround activity, with phasing of turnaround activity in 2025 heavily weighted towards the first half, with the highest impact in the second quarter. 
  • bp now expects other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $0.5-1.0 billion for 2025, subject to foreign exchange impacts. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter. 
  • bp now expects the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly higher compared with 2024. 
  • bp continues to expect the underlying ETR for 2025 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to a range of factors, including the volatility of the price environment and its impact on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses. 
  • bp continues to expect divestment and other proceeds to be around $3-4 billion in 2025, with the remaining proceeds weighted to the fourth quarter 2025.  
  • bp continues to expect Gulf of America settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter. 
  • bp continues to expect 2025 capital expenditure including inorganic to be around $14.5 billion. 

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New refining rule of thumb  

  • bp has retired the refining marker margin (RMM) and replaced it with the bp refining indicator margin (RIM), and updated the associated refining rule of thumb (RoT). The bp RIM RoT reflects the sensitivity of the group’s 2025 underlying replacement cost profit before interest and tax to changes in bp’s RIM at normal operating conditions, and will not fully explain all quarter on quarter movements in Products.  
  • The bp RIM reflects a broader set of crudes and products, and is more representative of bp's refining portfolio and realized refining margin per barrel. As a result, we believe this weekly disclosure will enhance the understanding of our realized margin delivery and refining profitability. For further information, see Supplementary information refining indicator margin (bp.com/supplementaryinformationRIM). 

Medium-term guidance

 Full detail around our medium targets and guidance can be found in our capital markets update materials.    

Four primary medium-term targets that underpin value growth

 

Adjusted free cash flow* growth: >20% CAGR from 2024 – 2027

Structural cost reduction: $4 – 5bn by end 2027

Net debt: expected to be reduced to $14 – 18bn by end 2027

(Potential proceeds from any transactions related to Castrol strategic review and announcement to bring a strategic partner into LSbp will be allocated to reduce net debt)

Group ROACE: >16% in 2027

 

Supporting metrics

 

Upstream:

  • Upstream production growth: 2.3 - 2.5mboed in 2030, with capacity to increase to 2035
  • 10 new major projects to start by end 2027 and further 8 to 10 by end 2030: Major projects
  • Upstream capex: ~$10.5bn p.a to 2027 (including biogas)
    • ~$10bn oil & gas only (70% oil / 30% gas) 
  • Structural cost reductions: ~$1.5bn by end 2027
  • Operating cash flow growth: $2bn 2024 to 2027 (including biogas)
  • Plant reliability: ~96%
  • Reserves replacement ratio: 100% by end 2027

Downstream:

  • Customers & products capex: ~$3bn by 2027
  • Structural cost reductions: ~$2bn by end 2027 
    • ~$1.5bn in customers
    • >$500m in refining
  • Operating cash flow growth: $3.5 to 4bn by 2027 (50% customers, 50% products)
  • Realised cash breakeven: ~$3/bbl lower
  • Returns: >15% expected
  • Refining availability: 96%

Low carbon energy (renewables, H2/CCS):

  • Capex: <$800m p.a to 2027
  • Structural cost reductions: ~$0.5bn by end 2027
  • Returns: mid-teen expected

Transition: includes LCE + biogas, biofuels and EV charging

Note: biogas is reported in G&LCE from 1Q25, biofuels and EV charging will continue to be reported in our customers business  

  • Capex: $1.5 to 2bn p.a. to 2027
  • Expected returns: >15%    

Price assumptions 

The price assumptions applicable to bp's CMU Cash Flow and ROACE Targets* have been updated by replacing the RMM price assumption with a RIM price assumption. The updated price assumptions are: at $70/bbl Brent, $4/mmBtu Henry Hub and $10.3/bbl refining indicator margin, all 2024 real. There is no change to the CMU Cash flow and ROACE targets or to the prices used for impairment testing as a consequence of this update. Price assumptions are not intended to reflect management’s forecasts for future prices.

Marker prices 2024 actual 20241 2025 2026 2027
Brent ($/bbl)  80.8 70 71.5 72.9 74.4
Henry Hub ($/mmbtu) 2.3 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3
Refining Indicator Margin ($/bbl) 10.7 10.3 10.5 10.7 10.9
(1) Reference year 2024, assumes inflation ~2%

Mergers and acquisitions (M&A)

Below is a summary of selected M&A transactions since 2022 that may impact financial modelling of bp's businesses. 

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